arXiv Machine Learning

Rethinking Correctness for Uncertainty Estimation in Clinical Prediction with Vision-Language Models

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 4

Uncertainty Is Not a Safety Net for Clinical VQA, but Can It Anticipate Model Failure?

The paper evaluates uncertainty estimation (UE) methods for clinical vision‑language models (VLMs) on visual question answering (VQA). Across 8 UE techniques and 12 VLMs, UE quality tracks model accuracy, degrading where performance is weakest, and fails to signal uncertainty when models are stressed by hiding the correct answer (NOTA perturbations). However, UE on unperturbed inputs reliably predicts which predictions will collapse under NOTA, suggesting UE can diagnose model fragility.

By Arnisa Fazla, Alberto Testoni, Ameen Abu-Hanna, Barbara Plank, Iacer Calixto
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

The paper investigates how pre‑training strategy, dataset size, and domain affect uncertainty estimation in vision medical foundation models. It compares point‑prediction calibration with conformal (region) prediction across retinal, histopathological, and chest X‑ray models, finding that domain‑specific, self‑supervised pre‑training yields better calibration and more efficient conformal sets. The study shows that standard recalibration alone cannot fully reconcile uncertainty differences between models trained on different data sources.

By Haoxu Huang, Narges Razavian
arXiv AI
Jul 20

Perception-Aligned AI Outputs: End-to-End Visual Prediction for Uncertainty Communication in Clinical Decision-Making

arXiv:2205. 04599v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is essential for trustworthy AI in healthcare, yet many existing methods rely on technical explanations that are difficult for clinicians and patients to interpret.

By Mohammad Eslami, Solale Tabarestani, Saber Kazeminasab, Ehsan Adeli, Glyn Elwyn, Tobias Elze, Mengyu Wang, Nazlee Zebardast, Lucia Sobrin, Nassir Navab, Daniel Shu Wei Ting, Malek Adjouadi
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Rethinking Clinical Relevance in Chest X-ray Machine Learning: How Evaluation References Define Performance

arXiv:2607. 26333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Chest X-ray (CXR) machine learning relies heavily on automated evaluation using reference standards that aim to approximate clinical judgment.

By Panagiotis Fytas, Ian Selby, Clemens Karner, Judith Babar, Simon Baker, Jake Beckford, Timothy J. Sadler, Shahab Shahipasand, Arthikkaa Thavakumar, John Li Chen, Alex Sawer, Michael Roberts, Jonathan Weir-McCall, J. H. F. Rudd, Carola-Bibiane Sch\"onlieb, Anna Korhonen, Anna Breger
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 17

Toward Better Assessment of LLMs' Performance in Clinical Error Detection

Automated detection of errors in clinical documentation is a promising application of large language models (LLMs), yet decisions to deploy such models rest on benchmarks that evaluate each clinical note in isolation. Error-detection benchmarks are typically constructed by injecting errors into notes, such that each erroneous note has a natural counterpart.