Proper scoring rules provide a rigorous theoretical basis for the training and evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. However, in the presence of right censoring, the event time is only partially observed, rendering conventional scoring rules inapplicable in their standard form.
arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.
By John Zobolas, Raphael Sonabend, Riccardo De Bin, Johannes Piller, Philipp Kopper, Lukas Burk, Andreas Bender
arXiv:2606. 03689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) is a statistical framework that models the time span until some event of interest occurs.
By Mariana Vargas Vieyra
arXiv:2606. 04564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched.
By Samuel B\"ohm (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany), Lennart Purucker (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Frank Hutter (Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, PriorLabs, Freiburg, Germany), Pascal Schlosser (Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, US, CIBSS - Centre for Integrative Biological Signalling Studies, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany)
arXiv:2510. 04421v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Survival analysis provides statistical methods to model the time until an event occurs.
By Yuta Shikuri, Hironori Fujisawa
arXiv:2502. 19460v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Dependent censoring occurs when the event time and censoring time are not conditionally independent given the observed covariates.
By Christian Marius Lillelund, Shi-ang Qi, Russell Greiner
arXiv:2608. 04025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Whole-slide survival models commonly provide risk rankings without calibrated statements about individual event times.
By Mingi Hong
arXiv:2506. 02075v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The current state of evaluation in survival analysis is plagued by the persistent use of evaluation metrics in ways that are misaligned with the stated modeling objective.
By Christian Marius Lillelund, Shi-ang Qi, Russell Greiner, Christian Fischer Pedersen
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
By Yanqi Xu, Hui Dai, Carlos Fernandez-Granda, Krzysztof J. Geras, Yiqiu Shen
arXiv:2608. 16594v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cancer survival prediction supports treatment planning, risk stratification, and follow-up management.
By Tianqi Xiang, Qixiang Zhang, Xinpeng Ding, Yi Li, Xiaomeng Li
arXiv:2601. 22259v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event of interest occurs.
By Da In Kim, Wei Siang Lai, Kelly W. Zhang
arXiv:2606. 18281v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are central to treatment decision-making in personalized medicine.
By Daniel Klippert, Sarah Friedrich, Markus Pauly