arXiv Machine Learning

When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation

arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control

arXiv:2606. 08517v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Selective predictors answer on confident inputs and abstain elsewhere; deploying one safely needs a single finite-sample certificate that simultaneously upper-bounds the selected risk, lower-bounds the acceptance probability $\pacc$ above a floor $\pmin$, and lower-bounds the deployment utility.

By Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao Liu
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

Conformalized Large Language Models under Configuration Shift

arXiv:2608. 01460v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability.

By Yuqicheng Zhu, Jialin Yu, Lin Li, Gengyuan Zhang, Zhen Yang, Steffen Staab, Puneet Dokania, Philip Torr, Jie Tang, Evgeny Kharlamov
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 11

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

The paper introduces a distribution‑free certification layer that can be applied to any crash‑severity prediction model without modifying the model itself. It provides guarantees for ordinal outcomes, per‑class validity, transfer of coverage to unobserved severities, and one‑sided certificates under deployment shift, all grounded in a functional of the true data law. The framework is evaluated on 5.2 million Texas records, demonstrating a model‑independent lower bound on set width for vulnerable road users and is released as an open‑source package with theorem‑level tests.

By Amir Rafe, Subasish Das