RiskTraf introduces a risk-extrapolated residual learning approach for multi-variate traffic flow prediction, leveraging raw flow, speed, and occupancy data from the new PEMSB-3V benchmark. The method freezes a trained spatio-temporal backbone and adds a lightweight residual head that learns from historical speed and occupancy to correct flow predictions across different traffic regimes. Experiments show consistent improvements over various backbones and outperform existing debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation techniques.
By Guangyu Wang, Zhidan Liu
arXiv:2608. 05265v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas.
By Quinn Ledingham, Zhengsen Xu, Yimin Zhu, Zack Dewis, Mabel Heffring, Saeid Taleghanidoozdoozan, Motasem Alkayid, Megan Greenwood, Lincoln Linlin Xu
arXiv:2606. 05070v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols.
By Cl\'ement Elliker, Mathis Le Bail, Cl\'ement Mantoux, Jesse Read, Sonia Vanier
The paper proposes a proactive approach to road safety in Greater Sydney by using connected vehicle telemetry to predict risky driving events before crashes occur. It quantifies risky driving with g‑force thresholds and builds spatio‑temporal heatmaps to locate high‑risk zones. Eight predictive models were compared, with ARIMA achieving the lowest error and showing that simple time‑series methods can rival deep learning when data are limited, highlighting the value of IoT data for targeted safety interventions.
By Adriana-Simona Mih\u{a}i\c{t}\u{a}, Clarence Cheung, Artur Grigorev, Tuo Mao, David Lillo-Trynes
arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.
By Alireza Jafari, Judy Fox, Geoffrey C. Fox, Madhav Marathe, Aniruddha Adiga
arXiv:2609.16415v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Pedestrian-count forecasting supports pedestrian-oriented Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), including crowd monitoring, pedestrian-traffic st...
By Theivaprakasham Hari, Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Winnie Daamen, Serge Hoogendoorn
The paper introduces Chameleon, a channel‑dependent state space model for multivariate time series forecasting that allows data‑dependent, fine‑grained interactions across variables while maintaining linear scaling with the number of variables. By integrating selective state space models with a Kalman filter and adapting GatedDeltaNet as the backbone, Chameleon improves generalization and achieves lower MSE and MAE on strongly dependent ODE and PEMS datasets compared to both channel‑independent and prior channel‑dependent methods. Across 28 benchmark settings, it outperforms baselines in the majority of cases and demonstrates competitive training‑time and memory efficiency on Traffic and ETT datasets.
By Yu-Cheng Wu, Fan-Keng Sun, Li-Chun Lu, Duane S. Boning
arXiv:2608. 00402v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction is a core component of intelligent transportation systems.
By Yanming Lyu, Yue Cheng, Lingkun Li, Ruipeng Gao, Xinyue Liu, Hui Gao, Qiang Ni
arXiv:2607. 11349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Dual-source trolleybuses alternate between overhead catenary supply and on-board battery operation, creating energy-use patterns driven by route attributes, high-frequency trajectories, and hourly weather.
By Wentao Zeng (School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China a School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China, School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering and Automation, Foshan University, Foshan, China), Zijian Huang (School of Artificial Intelligence, South China Normal University, Guangzhou, China), Yiming Bie (School of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, China), Jiabin Wu (School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China a School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China), Jun Gong (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)
arXiv:2608.20406v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends....
By Yushu Zou, Ye Li, Johra Moosa, Martin Grunnill, Samir N. Patel, Venkata R. Duvvuri
arXiv:2511. 09789v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics.
By Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Chao Zheng, Xiaofei Han
arXiv:2608.29658v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Accurate traffic flow prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems, playing a pivotal role in urban mobility optimization and smar...
By Limiao Zhang, Yuhui Lu, Jie Gao, Hao Jiang, Haiping Ma, Xingyi Zhang