WildfireSpreadBench evaluates machine‑learning models for predicting next‑day wildfire spread, comparing five discriminative and one generative architecture on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The study shows that model rankings differ markedly when using Average Precision versus threshold‑dependent metrics such as F1 and IoU, revealing three distinct prediction profiles—over‑predicting, balanced, and under‑predicting—that AP alone cannot distinguish. Expanding input channels modestly affected AP, underscoring that AP may favor models with predictions poorly suited for operational use.
By Arin Gopakumar, Marco Pannozzo
The paper presents modular deep learning augmentations for next‑day wildfire spread prediction, including wind‑ and slope‑conditioned attention biases, physics‑feature retrieval‑augmented output correction, and fire‑conditioned dual‑stream gating. These modules are evaluated on five backbone models using the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, with staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The best augmented SwinUNETR model achieves an F1 score of 0.4216 and an AUC‑PR of 0.3673, while a mixed ensemble reaches 0.4292 and 0.3790, demonstrating that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality can be simultaneously improved.
By Miguel Esparza, Aydin Ayanzadeh Ahmad Mousavi, Ali Mostafavi
arXiv:2606. 04143v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities.
By Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Leila Hashemi-Beni
arXiv:2607. 16050v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use.
By Yuya Kawakami, Daniel Cayan, Dongyu Liu, Kwan-Liu Ma, Tom Corringham
The study evaluates deep learning surrogates for wildfire spread prediction, training four architectures on 10,584 high‑resolution simulations from Catalonia. Results show that only surface fuel load significantly predicts burn probability, and convolutional models mainly use distance to the fire front while a transformer model emphasizes fuel and terrain. When applied to a new region without retraining, the models still perform reasonably, with only a modest accuracy drop.
By Marcin Lawenda, Aleksandra Krasicka, David Caballero, Luis Torres, {\L}ukasz Szustak
arXiv:2509. 25017v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems.
By Spyros Kondylatos, Nikolas Papadopoulos, Gustau Camps-Valls, Ioannis Papoutsis
arXiv:2609.36315v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Wildfires are an increasing hazard to ecosystems, air quality, and human systems, creating a growing need for datasets that support systematic develo...
By Arya Kondur, Giosue Migliorini, Cameron Schmitt, Francesco Immorlano, Tairan Wang, Rebecca C. Scholten, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Gary Johnson, Chris Lautenberger, Valentin Waeselynck, J. Shane Romsos, Kasra Shamsaei, Alejandro Tejedor, Tianjia Liu, Yang Chen, Padhraic Smyth, James T. Randerson
arXiv:2608. 09683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses.
By Swastik Agrawal, Nishkal Hundia, Ziyue Liu, Michelle Bensi
arXiv:2608. 11951v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Extreme events in air transport, such as severe arrival delays and abnormal air times, cause cascading network disruptions with substantial operational, economic, and safety costs.
By Karim Aly, Alexei Sharpanskykh, Jacco Hoekstra
arXiv:2608. 20117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The emergence of large-scale Weather and Climate (W&C) datasets offers new opportunities for modeling extreme Earth events (ExEE) and their impacts using deep learning.
By Hugo Porta, Emanuele Dalsasso, Chang Xu, Theo Gnassounou, Devis Tuia
The study evaluates crop‑yield forecasting methods for the 2012 Midwestern US drought, comparing non‑deep learning machine learning models with a deep learning model (VITA) using 16 meteorological predictors. It highlights challenges such as distributional dissimilarity between training and test data, spatial and temporal sparsity, and demonstrates that sample weighting and feature selection improve non‑deep learning models but not VITA. The work contrasts deep versus non‑deep learning approaches and shows how modifications can mitigate issues arising from extreme drought conditions.
By Shrey Gupta, Yi Ming, George Mohler
The paper compares classical machine learning algorithms—such as Logistic Regression, SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost—with Tabular Deep Learning models (TabNet, FT-Transformer, TabTransformer, TabSeq, and 1D CNNs) for urban land cover classification using a UCI dataset derived from high‑resolution aerial imagery. It evaluates performance across nine land cover classes, addressing challenges like high dimensionality, heterogeneous features, and class imbalance by applying weighted cross‑entropy loss for deep models and measuring accuracy, macro‑precision, macro‑recall, macro‑F1, AUC‑ROC, and confusion matrices. Results indicate that while tree ensembles remain strong baselines, Tabular Deep Learning can match or surpass them when non‑linear interactions are prominent and imbalance handling is effective.
By Muntasir Tabasum, Tanpia Tasnim, Md. Ekramul Islam, Al Zadid Sultan Bin Habib