The paper investigates when online adaptation benefits edge time‑series forecasting under distribution drift, using a leakage‑free streaming protocol on six public multivariate datasets. It shows that the warmup budget for static baselines and the choice of learning rate can bias perceived adaptation gains, and that a validation‑only procedure selecting warmup and optimizer rates yields Adam outperforming SGD with momentum in most settings. The study also examines accuracy versus adaptation‑state memory and per‑update latency for different adaptation strategies, highlighting parameter‑efficient variants that are nondominated on the memory axis.
By Takumi Fujimoto, Hiroaki Nishi
The paper introduces a schema‑adaptive action‑conditioned Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC‑JEPA) for cross‑machine CNC transfer when only a subset of sensors overlap between source and target machines. Experiments show that pretraining does not improve source‑only forecasting, but a carefully selected action‑conditioned JEPA model achieves a zero‑shot RMSE of 0.546 on the target, outperforming persistence but falling short of certain baseline models. Ablation studies reveal that adding RevIN improves RMSE but harms calibration, and limited post‑lock adaptation can further reduce error.
By Ayoub Louaye Bouaziz, Matthieu Ostertag, Anton Demasles
arXiv:2610. 12232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods for time-series forecasting update a deployed model, or a small adapter around it, from incoming ground truth.
By Mohamed Readh Fentazi, Mazene Ameur, Adlen Ksentini
KNOU‑Flood extends the open AIFL recipe for global streamflow forecasting by retaining a single‑layer LSTM and two‑stage transfer learning while adding a longer 424‑day input window, lead‑aware forecast inputs, and GraphCast as an additional forecast source. The model also introduces a latent‑noise ensemble trained with the fair CRPS, achieving a median KGE′ of 0.65 at lead time 1 and 0.48 at lead time 10 across 2,099 test basins, outperforming AIFL and a 1,024‑unit baseline. The probabilistic head, GraphCast channels, longer window, and mixed fine‑tuning collectively reduce lead‑time decay, improve calibration, and enhance detection of multi‑year floods.
By Minjong Cheon
arXiv:2609. 20193v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval plug-ins supply a deep forecaster with information its lookback window cannot carry.
By Mert Onur Cakiroglu, Elham Buxton, Mehmet Dalkilic, Hasan Kurban
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
By Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao, Szu-Yu Chen, Huiran Duan, Chu Lin, Chuanguang Yang
arXiv:2610.02248v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Operational land surface forecasting systems built on Mamba-family Structured State Space Models absorb non-stationary confounding events (unrecorded i...
By Anidipta Pal
arXiv:2607. 00958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances.
By Alexander Chemeris, Ming Jin, Randall Balestriero
TIDES is a new selective state space model that keeps the learned step size equal to the physical time gap, enabling it to handle irregular timestamps while maintaining per‑token expressivity. By moving input dependence from the step size to the diagonal state matrix, TIDES combines the strengths of selective SSMs like Mamba and continuous‑time SSMs like S5. Experiments on a novel Fading Flash benchmark and large‑scale datasets show that TIDES outperforms or matches state‑of‑the‑art models on irregular time‑series tasks.
By Taylan Soydan, Miguel A. Bessa, Dirk Mohr, Rui Barreira
arXiv:2601.01480v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as i...
By Aman Sunesh (New York University), Allan Ma (New York University), Siddarth Nilol (New York University)
The study introduces RegimeShift‑Surrogates, a streaming benchmark that tests surrogate models across eight tasks and multiple regimes. It compares revalidation—choosing the model with lowest current‑window validation loss—to stateful adaptive controllers and finds that revalidation consistently outperforms stateful methods, achieving lower mean log regret in most task‑scenario combinations. The results suggest that fresh validation evidence is more valuable than carrying over past evidence when dealing with distribution shifts.
By Harshil Lodhiya
arXiv:2610.03314v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When com...
By Erik Wikingsson, Martin Andrae, Tomas Landelius, Fredrik Lindsten