The study trains a convolutional LSTM on ten annual Earth Observation variables to forecast desertification dynamics in Ceará, Brazil, achieving modest improvements over persistence and capturing 53‑69% of the regional degradation trend. While the model slightly outperforms simple baselines one to four years ahead, it explains only a small fraction of cell‑level variance, indicating that EO data are more reliable for regional trends than for individual pixel predictions. The authors also demonstrate that elevation and EVI channels degrade forecast skill, and use Monte Carlo dropout to quantify uncertainty in future degradation maps.
By Filipe Moura Da Silva, Cl\'aubio Landney Lima Bandeira
arXiv:2505. 11602v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Selective State-Space Models (SSMs) such as Mamba have become central to long-sequence modeling.
By Nikola Zubi\'c, Davide Scaramuzza
The paper introduces a schema‑adaptive action‑conditioned Joint‑Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC‑JEPA) for cross‑machine CNC transfer when only a subset of sensors overlap between source and target machines. Experiments show that pretraining does not improve source‑only forecasting, but a carefully selected action‑conditioned JEPA model achieves a zero‑shot RMSE of 0.546 on the target, outperforming persistence but falling short of certain baseline models. Ablation studies reveal that adding RevIN improves RMSE but harms calibration, and limited post‑lock adaptation can further reduce error.
By Ayoub Louaye Bouaziz, Matthieu Ostertag, Anton Demasles
arXiv:2607. 07758v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Foundation models (FMs) have transformed machine learning from isolated task-specific model development toward general-purpose models pretrained on broad data and adapted to multiple downstream tasks.
By Syed Usama Imtiaz, Mitra Nasr Azadani, Nasrin Alamdari
arXiv:2602. 17683v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture.
By Irene Iele, Giulia Romoli, Daniele Molino, Elena Mulero Ayll\'on, Filippo Ruffini, Paolo Soda, Matteo Tortora
arXiv:2608.20998v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Reservoir computing (RC) couples a fixed recurrent dynamical system with a trained lightweight readout, but this efficiency is partly lost during hyper...
By Sara Malacarne, Andrea Ceni, Claudio Gallicchio
arXiv:2606. 07031v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-supervised learning (SSL) for time-series representation learning is dominated by two paradigms: contrastive methods, which face challenges in constructing positive or negative pairs, and masking-based methods, which disrupt the temporal continuity of time-series signals.
By Jaehoon Lee, Sunghyun Sim
The paper introduces KG‑Chronos‑2, a surrogate forecasting model that augments a frozen Chronos‑2 time‑series predictor with knowledge‑graph‑conditioned retrieval and correction mechanisms for HEC‑RAS water‑surface elevation (WSE) prediction. In a benchmark involving 64 24‑hour windows across 4,675 cross sections, KG‑Chronos‑2 outperforms persistence, residual LSTM, GeoFNO, and hydraulic DCRNN‑style models, achieving a 0.246970 event‑balanced RMSE and reducing error by 14.13% relative to frozen Chronos‑2. The model also attains the lowest active‑window and final‑lead RMSE among the evaluated systems, demonstrating the benefit of coupling a frozen temporal predictor with project‑specific knowledge for warm‑start HEC‑RAS forecasting.
By Edward Holmberg, Elias Ioup, Mahdi Abdelguerfi
arXiv:2607. 17511v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains.
By Wentao Gao, Jiuyong Li, Lin Liu, Thuc Duy Le, Jixue Liu, Yanchang Zhao, Yun Chen
The study introduces RegimeShift‑Surrogates, a streaming benchmark that tests surrogate models across eight tasks and multiple regimes. It compares revalidation—choosing the model with lowest current‑window validation loss—to stateful adaptive controllers and finds that revalidation consistently outperforms stateful methods, achieving lower mean log regret in most task‑scenario combinations. The results suggest that fresh validation evidence is more valuable than carrying over past evidence when dealing with distribution shifts.
By Harshil Lodhiya
The paper introduces a lightweight deep learning framework that forecasts Brazilian soybean yields using only routine weather data and two simple static inputs (crop year and agro-environmental label). Across 20 seasons, transformer-based models achieved the highest accuracy, outperforming traditional ridge regression and a moving‑average baseline by nearly 48%. Ablation studies show that the static inputs and spatial expansion improve performance without adding complexity, and SHAP analysis highlights the importance of crop year and weather variables in driving yield variations.
By Fernando Dupin da Cunha Mello (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), Prashant Kumar (Global Centre for Clean Air Research), Erick G. Sperandio Nascimento (Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil)
AsyncCouple-Flow introduces a new framework for multi‑modal spatio‑temporal forecasting that tackles three key challenges: differing sampling rates, missing modalities, and autoregressive error accumulation. It employs a Modality‑Aware Token Sparsification module to produce equal‑length sequences, an Asynchronous Cross‑Modal Coupling Graph to fuse data under arbitrary asynchrony and missingness, and a Flow‑Matching Forecasting Head that models multi‑step prediction as a conditional ODE. Experiments on weather and traffic datasets demonstrate that the method outperforms state‑of‑the‑art baselines and remains robust even when up to two modalities are missing.
By Zhixiang Wu, Yining Liu, Bo Zhao, Szu-Yu Chen, Huiran Duan, Chu Lin, Chuanguang Yang