arXiv:2607. 05620v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In many decision-making settings, new interventions are acceptable only if they do not reduce outcomes below some established threshold.
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arXiv:2608. 02893v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Counterfactual inference approaches for sequential decision-making typically assume deterministic causal models, where all randomness stems from latent variables.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
The paper introduces a semiparametric framework for counterfactual regression along a specified incremental‑intervention path. It estimates a finite‑dimensional constrained projection of counterfactual risk using cross‑fitted influence‑function representations, and establishes consistency, local stability, and first‑order expansions for smooth and finite‑dimensional programs. The results provide asymptotically valid inference, including simultaneous confidence bands, and are demonstrated through simulations and an SMS reminder application.
arXiv:2606. 01051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Dynamic medical treatment requires deciding treatment intensity and intervention timing, while patient states evolve continuously and adverse events may occur between clinical interactions.
arXiv:2606. 07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification.
Policy learning aims to determine who should be treated based on individual characteristics. In high-stakes settings such as medicine and public policy where safety is a central concern, improving the...