arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
The paper introduces a score‑calibrated robustness framework that transforms any fixed point predictor into a decision‑relevant uncertainty representation using distribution‑free conformal calibration. By employing the conformal score as the core unit of robustness, the authors derive both reliability‑based robust optimization and target‑oriented Conformal Robust Satisficing formulations, linking them through a shared robust decision frontier and a fragility measure. Experiments on synthetic data and a real online‑grocery inventory case study demonstrate the framework’s ability to improve reliability, reduce costs, and provide interpretable uncertainty scales for black‑box predictors.
arXiv:2605.08506v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choic...
arXiv:2606. 05551v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees.
arXiv:2608.29789v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliabl...
arXiv:2609. 11073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) typically treats the conditional outcome law as fixed and uses ambiguity sets to capture estimation error.
arXiv:2606. 13884v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern decision systems increasingly rely on learned components whose outputs may be confident yet wrong, exposing downstream actions to costly errors.
arXiv:2606. 00320v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present an online, distribution-free framework for controlling the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), extending conformal tail risk control to non-stationary and adversarial environments.
arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.
arXiv:2603. 02196v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: An agent must try new behaviors to explore and improve.
arXiv:2607. 08590v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Scientific experiments are often designed to maximize information gain, yet in many applications the primary objective is to support reliable downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2609. 28522v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern conformal forecasting systems often maintain several adaptive pipelines that differ in base forecasters, conformity scores, calibration windows, and update rules.