The paper introduces RATTL (Risk-Adversarial Total-Reward Learning), a framework that adjusts an agent’s caution based on epistemic uncertainty by using a Bayesian posterior over dynamics and a Wasserstein ambiguity set whose radius depends on that posterior. As evidence accumulates, the radius shrinks, smoothly transitioning the agent’s behavior from worst-case robustness to risk-neutral reward maximization. The authors prove a Safety Sandwich theorem showing RATTL’s value lies between the uninformed robust value and the full-knowledge optimum, and demonstrate the method on a binary-hazard example where the criterion reduces to Conditional Value-at-Risk.
By Deep Kumar Ganguly, Jan Kretinsky
arXiv:2605. 23146v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Classical reinforcement learning assumes the agent interacts with a fixed environment whose behavior does not depend on the agent's policy.
By Manish Aryal, Faiyaz Azam, Agnivo Banerjee, Syed Mahir Ahamed, Sai Sidhanth Manoharan Jayanthi, Allegra Laro, Cl\'ement Legentilhomme, Andrew Lin, Florian Lorkowski, Marina P\'erez del Valle, Radman Rakhshandehroo, Patric Rommel, Emanuel Ruzak, Nathan Theng, Paul Yushin Rapoport
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
By Yurui Zheng, Ying Jin
arXiv:2607. 15196v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification.
By Raghad Alamri, Michele Caprio, Gavin Brown
arXiv:2605. 07565v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study Bayesian Optimisation (BO) in settings where the objective function is influenced by uncontrollable environmental contexts governed by an unknown probability distribution.
By Tigran Ramazyan, Denis Derkach
arXiv:2606. 19569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning.
By Sam Goring, Tom Kuipers, Nicola Paoletti, David S. Watson
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
By Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, B\'alint Mucs\'anyi
Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) generalize classical MDPs by allowing uncertainty in transition probabilities and optimizing against their worst-case realization. We consider $(s,a)$-rectangu...
arXiv:2603. 02491v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As artificial agents become increasingly capable, what internal structure is necessary for an agent to act competently under uncertainty?
By Aran Nayebi
arXiv:2606. 05551v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees.
By Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas. Hamed Hassani
arXiv:2607. 14817v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Current evaluation of epistemic uncertainty relies on tasks such as out-ofdistribution detection and active learning.
By Jakub Paplh\'am, Willem Waegeman, Eyke H\"ullermeier, Vojt\v{e}ch Franc
The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.
By Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, B\'alint Mucs\'anyi