arXiv:2606. 27001v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantifying the evolution of uncertainty is critical to both probabilistic forecasting and data assimilation in numerical weather prediction.
arXiv:2606. 02886v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events.
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
arXiv:2606. 08654v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we propose a perturbation-based conformal prediction framework for uncertainty quantification in operator learning, with a focus on the 2D Navier--Stokes equations.
arXiv:2508. 18486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP).
arXiv:2606. 16356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study uncertainty quantification for aggregated forecasting tasks such as annual totals and year-over-year growth rates.
arXiv:2507. 14023v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Regression problems with bounded continuous outcomes frequently arise in statistical and machine learning applications, such as the analysis of rates and proportions.
arXiv:2607. 11470v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone.
arXiv:2507. 08150v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2606. 15950v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction gives prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage when the data are exchangeable.
arXiv:2605. 30122v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall.