arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
arXiv:2402. 07407v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose conformal predictive programming (CPP), a framework to solve chance constrained optimization problems, i.
arXiv:2609. 11073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) typically treats the conditional outcome law as fixed and uses ambiguity sets to capture estimation error.
arXiv:2510. 07750v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions.
arXiv:2607. 09820v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable.
The paper introduces a score‑calibrated robustness framework that transforms any fixed point predictor into a decision‑relevant uncertainty representation using distribution‑free conformal calibration. By employing the conformal score as the core unit of robustness, the authors derive both reliability‑based robust optimization and target‑oriented Conformal Robust Satisficing formulations, linking them through a shared robust decision frontier and a fragility measure. Experiments on synthetic data and a real online‑grocery inventory case study demonstrate the framework’s ability to improve reliability, reduce costs, and provide interpretable uncertainty scales for black‑box predictors.
arXiv:2606. 19569v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning.
arXiv:2608. 01460v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability.
arXiv:2609. 39449v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) studies parameter estimation under uncertainty in the underlying probability distribution and has emerged as a principled framework for analyzing robustness and generalization.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.