arXiv:2508. 18486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP).
By Zekun Ni, Jonathan Weyn, Hang Zhang, Yanfei Xiang, Jiang Bian, Weixin Jin, Kit Thambiratnam, Qi Zhang, Haiyu Dong, Hongyu Sun
arXiv:2606. 26497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion.
By Eviatar Bach, Ricardo Baptista, Jochen Br\"ocker, Bohan Chen, Andrew Stuart
arXiv:2606. 07898v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-resolution regional climate simulations provide critical information for climate impacts assessments but remain computationally expensive, motivating the development of machine-learning downscalers and emulators.
By Karandeep Singh, Stefan Rahimi, Chad W. Thackeray, Stephen Cropper, Alex Hall
arXiv:2509. 15942v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Internal variability is a dominant contributor to the uncertainty of predictions at the interannual to decadal timescale.
By Graham Clyne, Guillaume Couairon, Guillaume Gastineau, Claire Monteleoni, Anastase Charantonis
arXiv:2508. 10178v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shelf seas are important for the economy and the carbon cycle, but shelf sea observations for carbon pools are often sparse, or highly uncertain.
By Jozef Skakala
The paper presents an ensemble Kalman–Bucy smoother (EnKBS) for continuous‑time data assimilation of nonlinear dynamical systems, reconstructing conditional distributions from ensemble moments without needing tangent‑linear or adjoint models. It demonstrates that EnKBS achieves exact smoothing mean and covariance in the infinite‑ensemble limit for linear‑Gaussian systems and incorporates regularization techniques like covariance localization and inflation for high‑dimensional problems. The method is applied to Bayesian inference of causal relationships in a dyadic trigger‑feedback model and to an iterative learning algorithm that uncovers the structure and hidden parameters of a reduced‑order model of midlatitude atmospheric circulation, all with small ensembles under partial observations.
By Zhang Jiang (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Marios Andreou (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Sebastian Reich (University of Potsdam), Nan Chen (University of Wisconsin-Madison)