arXiv Statistics ML By Rebecca Gjini, Matthias Morzfeld, Oliver R. A. Dunbar, Tapio Schneider

The Ensemble Kalman Inversion Race

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The paper compares different Ensemble Kalman methods for calibrating climate model parameters by minimizing the misfit between modeled and observed climate statistics. It conducts systematic numerical experiments on Lorenz-type models, including neural network parameterizations, to evaluate computational efficiency and accuracy of each method. The study examines how prior information and dimensionality affect the cost of these methods.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 26

Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system for ensemble data assimilation and weather prediction

arXiv:2508. 18486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP).

By Zekun Ni, Jonathan Weyn, Hang Zhang, Yanfei Xiang, Jiang Bian, Weixin Jin, Kit Thambiratnam, Qi Zhang, Haiyu Dong, Hongyu Sun
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 17

A Continuous-Time Ensemble Kalman-Bucy Smoother for Causal Inference and Model Discovery

The paper presents an ensemble Kalman–Bucy smoother (EnKBS) for continuous‑time data assimilation of nonlinear dynamical systems, reconstructing conditional distributions from ensemble moments without needing tangent‑linear or adjoint models. It demonstrates that EnKBS achieves exact smoothing mean and covariance in the infinite‑ensemble limit for linear‑Gaussian systems and incorporates regularization techniques like covariance localization and inflation for high‑dimensional problems. The method is applied to Bayesian inference of causal relationships in a dyadic trigger‑feedback model and to an iterative learning algorithm that uncovers the structure and hidden parameters of a reduced‑order model of midlatitude atmospheric circulation, all with small ensembles under partial observations.

By Zhang Jiang (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Marios Andreou (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Sebastian Reich (University of Potsdam), Nan Chen (University of Wisconsin-Madison)