The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.
By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
arXiv:2510. 15780v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations.
By Alireza Moradi, Mathieu Tanneau, Reza Zandehshahvar, Pascal Van Hentenryck
arXiv:2606. 08630v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates.
By Jiahui Huang, Ao Luo, Lei Liu, Hongwei Zhao, Tengyuan Liu, Ruibo Guo, Bo Wang, Zhao Wang, Bin Li
arXiv:2609.15049v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: An ensemble can improve photovoltaic forecasts while adding components that contribute little or increase computation. We assess these effects throug...
By Sun Ze, Zhou Liguo, Xu Yuqing, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming
arXiv:2608. 02088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts are needed for low-carbon energy systems, but newly deployed sites often have short, imperfect records.
By Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah, Stephanie Gauthier, Masood Nazari
arXiv:2508. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is well-suited for uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting due to its distribution-free coverage guarantees.
By Ruipu Li, Daniel Menacho, Alexander Rodr\'iguez