arXiv AI

Can Reinforcement Learning Efficiently Discover Price Manipulation?

arXiv:2607. 06121v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether a model-free RL agent can identify and exploit price manipulation opportunities more effectively than a traditional model-based approach that assumes correct specification of the data-generating process but relies on noisy parameter estimates.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 24

Smart Exploration in Reinforcement Learning using Bounded Uncertainty Models

The paper introduces BUMEX, a reinforcement learning exploration strategy that leverages a set of prior models containing the true transition kernel and reward function. By optimizing over this model set, the method derives upper and lower bounds on the Q‑function to guide exploration, providing theoretical guarantees of convergence to the optimal policy. When the model set follows a bounded‑parameter MDP structure, the optimization becomes convex, enabling finite‑time convergence under mild assumptions and demonstrating accelerated learning in simulations.

By J. S. van Hulst, W. P. M. H. Heemels, D. J. Antunes
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Robust Market Making with Hawkes Order Flow and Price Impact via Adversarial Reinforcement Learning

The paper proposes an adversarial reinforcement‑learning framework for market making that incorporates Hawkes‑process driven order arrivals and trade‑induced price impact, addressing limitations of prior Poisson‑based models. An LSTM module captures temporal dependencies in recent observations to handle increased non‑stationarity, and the authors analyze equilibrium properties and introduce a robustness evaluation protocol focused on the left tail of returns. Experiments across diverse market regimes demonstrate that the method improves left‑tail performance, especially under strong Hawkes excitation and moderate price impact, without relying on a terminal inventory bias.

By Hao Yang, Zhenguo Xu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 10

Decision-Centered Abstractions via Orthogonal Estimation of Difference-of-Q Functions

The paper introduces state abstractions that preserve the difference of Q‑functions for offline reinforcement learning, aiming to exclude irrelevant dynamics from rich state data. It proposes a dynamic generalization of the R‑learner that uses orthogonal estimation and sparse learning to estimate the Q‑function contrast, achieving faster convergence and consistency under a margin condition. Experiments on simulated and simulator‑augmented real data show variance reductions and demonstrate that the necessary information for sequential decision‑making can be smaller than that required for full state prediction.

By Defu Cao, Angela Zhou