arXiv Machine Learning

Trading Confidence: Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation in Algorithmic Trading

arXiv:2607. 02864v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful approach in financial trading, enabling agents to learn optimal strategies through direct market interaction.

arXiv AI
Jul 9

Can Reinforcement Learning Efficiently Discover Price Manipulation?

arXiv:2607. 06121v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether a model-free RL agent can identify and exploit price manipulation opportunities more effectively than a traditional model-based approach that assumes correct specification of the data-generating process but relies on noisy parameter estimates.

By Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki, Andrea Macr\`i, Fabrizio Lillo
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Agent Memory with Episodic Retrieval for Financial Decision-Making

META (Memory Enhanced Trading Agent) is a new agent-based trading framework that augments large language models with episodic memory. It combines specialized indicator agents—such as Trend, MACD, Stochastic, RSI, SMA, AVWAP, and Heikin‑Ashi—with a Decision Agent that fuses their reports, while a Memory module retrieves and updates past trading episodes encoded as market state embeddings with outcomes and reflections. By recalling relevant experiences and adaptively reweighting signals under similar market regimes, META improves directional accuracy and robustness in short‑horizon evaluations, offering regime‑aware, interpretable, and low‑latency decision‑making for financial trading.

By Nuoyue Xu, Jiang Liu, Wenxuan Huang, Xiang Zhang, Juntai Cao, Jiaqi Wei
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 1

Uncertainty-Driven Replay Memory for Reinforcement Learning

The paper introduces Uncertainty-Driven Replay Memory (UDRM), a new experience replay buffer for reinforcement learning that prioritizes storing transitions with high uncertainty estimates. Unlike traditional buffers that rely on temporal difference error or transition distributions, UDRM updates its contents based on uncertainty derived from the RL model during training. Experiments show that this uncertainty-aware buffer leads to higher rewards during training compared to other uncertainty-aware RL frameworks.

By Sheeraja Rajakrishnan, Alexander G. Ororbia, Travis Desell, Daniel E. Krutz
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 17

A Noise-Robust Elicit-to-Optimize Framework for Distortion Riskmetrics via Inverse Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2607. 14373v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose a noise-robust elicit-to-optimize framework that integrates inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) and reinforcement learning (RL) for eliciting agents' risk preferences and optimizing policies under a broad class of risk objectives characterized by distortion riskmetrics.

By Yang Liu, Yuhao Liu, Yunran Wei