arXiv Machine Learning

Reliability-Centered Evaluation of Sparse Longitudinal CT Lesion-Size Forecasting with Conformal Interval Calibration and Gompertz-Inspired Regularization

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Differentiable latent structure discovery for interpretable forecasting in clinical time series

arXiv:2604. 27967v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: We introduce StructGP, a continuous-time multi-task Gaussian process that couples process convolutions with differentiable structure learning to uncover a sparse, ordered directed acyclic graph (DAG) of inter-variable dependencies while preserving principled uncertainty.

By Ivan Lerner, Jean Feydy, Alexandre Kalimouttou, Anita Burgun, Francis Bach
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Observation-Anchored Selective Assimilation for Longitudinal Tumor-State Proxy Forecasting in Post-Treatment Glioma

The paper introduces Observation‑Anchored Selective Assimilation (OASA) for forecasting tumor‑state proxies in post‑treatment glioma patients using serial MRI observations. OASA anchors the patient‑specific state with an intermediate observation and selectively updates it via a tiered rule and voxel‑wise soft gate, outperforming baseline methods in Dice score at certain thresholds. The approach is validated on 120 patient triplets and the code is publicly released.

By Yeonjae Jung, Minwoo Shin
arXiv Computer Vision
Aug 28

Parameter-Efficient pretrained-CT-to-MRI Transfer for Rectal Cancer Segmentation: Performance-Calibration Trade-offs

The paper introduces SWIFT, a Swin V2‑based model pretrained on 10,444 3D CT volumes and fine‑tuned for rectal cancer segmentation on T2‑weighted MRI. Four configurations—full fine‑tuning (SWIFT), decoder compression (SWIFTe), low‑rank adaptation (SWIFTe‑LoRA), and a LoRA‑decoder ensemble (SWIFTe‑LDE4)—were evaluated on 247 cases, showing that SWIFTe reduces parameters by 70.1% while improving tumor detection and radiomic agreement. The study also demonstrates a trade‑off between detection and boundary agreement, and highlights that SWIFTe‑LDE4 achieves the lowest calibration errors after temperature scaling.

By Aneesh Rangnekar, Jorge Tapias Gomez, Joseph O Deasy, Harini Veeraraghavan
arXiv AI
Sep 1

Extending TotalSegmentator: Predicting Patient and Acquisition Characteristics from CT and MR Images

arXiv:2608.29348v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Background: Patient details and acquisition metadata are important for clinical decisions, image quality control, and automated research pipelines, but...

By Jakob Wasserthal, Joshy Cyriac, Michael Bach, Kimia Mozahheb Yousefi, Minh-Son To, M\'at\'e Sik, C\'edric H\'emon, Thomas Weikert, Martin Segeroth
arXiv AI
Sep 10

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN: Prior-Guided Joint Probabilistic Forecasting of Clinical Trajectories

PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy. whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."

By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 13

Intervention-Aware Clinical World Model for Post-Op Outcome Forecasting in Cardiology

Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time.