Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time.
arXiv:2512.08029v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires forecasting how disease evolves under treatment, yet most AI systems remain static predictors that ca...
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv:2512. 08029v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform.
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
arXiv:2609.36144v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Electronic health records provide irregular observations of latent patient states that evolve continuously over time. Recent autoregressive models cond...
By Silas Ruhrberg Est\'evez, Kara Liu, Christopher Chiu, Benjamin Atta Owusu, Umesh Kadam, Russ B. Altman, Mihaela van der Schaar
PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy.
whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su
The study introduces SynerT, a waveform-only hybrid temporal model that uses a causal dilated TCN and dilated recurrent layers to predict early intraoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). Two extensions, SynerT-MM and SynerT-Stack, incorporate hemodynamic summaries, preoperative covariates, and a leakage-safe stacked ensemble to improve discrimination and calibration. Evaluated on the VitalDB database with a strict 60‑minute prediction window, SynerT-Stack achieved the best performance across AUROC, AUPRC, and F1‑max, and demonstrated the greatest net clinical benefit after recalibration.
By Quang Minh Nguyen, Duc Minh Le, Ho Nhat Minh Nguyen, Thuy Quynh Nguyen, Trong Nghia Nguyen
The paper introduces a reverse spatio‑temporal disease progression model that reconstructs unobserved healthier anatomy from later diseased scans. It employs a two‑stage architecture: a frozen 3D vector‑quantised autoencoder creates a discrete latent space, and a Neural ODE learns continuous‑time dynamics, with a recurrent encoder initializing the latent state from reverse‑ordered observations. Experiments on a synthetic Morpho‑MNIST benchmark and longitudinal Alzheimer’s MRIs show the model can recover unseen prior states and outperform baseline methods in predicting healthy trajectories.
By Ulugbek Shernazarov, Moucheng Xu, Inomjon Ramatov
arXiv:2606. 26718v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) captures rich spatiotemporal information about ventricular structure and motion, but conventional risk models use only a few image-derived indices from selected cardiac phases.
By David Br\"uggemann, Ekaterina Krymova, Firat \"Ozdemir, Jochen von Spiczak, Sebastian Kozerke, Samia Mora, Robert Manka, Mathieu Salzmann, Olga V. Demler
NOAH is a generative transformer that learns the full multimodal patient journey by integrating bidirectional time and a variational latent space. Trained on over 559 million clinical events from 431,000 hospital visits, it processes medical images, time‑series, numeric signals, categorical events, and both structured and unstructured records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting, zero‑shot classification, and counterfactual intervention simulation, yielding strong performance on clinical outcomes, ICD chapters, comorbidities, and time‑to‑event prediction.
By Tobias Susetzky, Raphael Rehms, Dmitrii Seletkov, \"Ozg\"un Turgut, Michelle Espranita Liman, Lisa Steinhelfer, Rickmer Braren, Daniel Rueckert
NOAH is a generative transformer that models the entire multimodal patient journey by integrating bidirectional time and a variational latent space to capture continuous, stochastic clinical trajectories. Trained on over 559 million events from 431,000 hospital visits, it processes medical images, time‑series, numeric signals, categorical events, and both structured and unstructured records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting, zero‑shot classification, and counterfactual simulations, yielding strong predictive performance across 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time‑to‑event outcomes.
arXiv:2607. 04912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In patients with breast cancer, pathological complete response (pCR) has been established as a clinically meaningful surrogate marker for long-term outcomes.
By Johannes Kiechle, Richard Osuala, Daniel M. Lang, Stefan M. Fischer, Ivana Jan\'i\v{c}kov\'a, Karim Lekadir, Julia A. Schnabel, Jan C. Peeken