Many clinical prediction models treat post-intervention outcomes as a one-step mapping from baseline measurements to a future endpoint. However, recovery after a procedure often unfolds as an irregular trajectory: clinical observations, medication changes, repeat interventions, and physiological measurements are recorded asynchronously and can change risk assessment over time.
arXiv:2512.08029v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires forecasting how disease evolves under treatment, yet most AI systems remain static predictors that ca...
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
By Minjun Kim, Jong Hak Moon
arXiv:2512. 08029v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform.
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
arXiv:2609.36144v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Electronic health records provide irregular observations of latent patient states that evolve continuously over time. Recent autoregressive models cond...
By Silas Ruhrberg Est\'evez, Kara Liu, Christopher Chiu, Benjamin Atta Owusu, Umesh Kadam, Russ B. Altman, Mihaela van der Schaar
PGP-Clinical-TimeKAN is a trajectory-first framework for joint probabilistic forecasting of multivariate physiological data, combining missingness-aware temporal encoders, a soft organ-system prior, patient-specific relations, nonlinear Kolmogorov‑Arnold messages, and a low‑rank multivariate Student‑t head. Evaluated on a MIMIC‑IV cohort of 6,882 patients, it achieves the second‑lowest normalized MAE and the lowest RMSE among 13 models, while providing calibrated probabilistic forecasts with empirical coverage at 50%, 80%, and 95% intervals. Ablation studies show that relational structure is critical for performance, and increasing covariance rank improves likelihood but not point accuracy.
whyItMatters":"The model demonstrates that joint trajectory forecasting can yield highly accurate, calibrated predictions of physiological trajectories, offering a potentially inspectable intermediate task for clinical deterioration prediction."
By Weizhi Nie, Rihao Chang, Weijie Wang, Yuting Su