The paper introduces a conformal prediction framework designed for molecular property prediction under label shift. By weighting conformal scores with marginal label probability ratios, it generates statistically rigorous prediction intervals without retraining, enabling robust uncertainty quantification when property distributions change. This approach provides actionable confidence measures that improve the reliability of AI-driven predictions in drug discovery.
arXiv:2605. 20468v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective medication management in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is challenging due to heterogeneous disease progression, variable patient response, and medication side effects.
The paper introduces the Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Score (LSA score), a nonconformity measure for conformal prediction that corrects Bayesian scores under label shift by applying an importance-weighted transformation of the source predictive distribution. Unlike residual-based scores that produce uniform-width intervals, the LSA score yields shorter, adaptive intervals while maintaining comparable coverage in the target domain. Experiments on molecular property prediction demonstrate that the LSA score outperforms both residual-based and source-based Bayesian scores, though all methods experience some coverage loss under stronger shifts due to density-ratio estimation challenges.
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
arXiv:2607. 22985v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformalized selection has been widely applied to select high-quality candidates from large datasets with rigorous uncertainty quantification, such as reliable labeling, drug discovery, and the alignment of large language models.
arXiv:2607. 17601v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust.
Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust. Consensus scoring and ensemble methods improve mean accuracy but treat all predictions identically without interpretable confidence measures or uncertainty decomposition, ignoring the chemical context of each protein-ligand pair.
arXiv:2607. 06605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is being adopted in drug discovery to put an honest number on model reliability: pick an error rate alpha, and the method returns prediction sets containing the true label with probability at least 1 - alpha.
The study evaluates the use of default decision thresholds (t=0.50) in multi‑label enzyme commission (EC) number prediction across 14,096 compounds and six EC classes. It finds a high mean accuracy of 77.16% but low macro F1 (0.3976) and macro recall (0.3872), indicating severe class‑imbalance issues: majority classes are over‑predicted while minority classes, especially EC6, have zero recall despite reasonable ROC‑AUC. The authors recommend target‑specific threshold tuning and conformal calibration as post‑processing safeguards to expose and correct these hidden errors.
arXiv:2603. 10950v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning methods for identifying molecular structures from tandem mass spectra (MS/MS) have advanced rapidly, yet current approaches still exhibit significant error rates.
arXiv:2608. 12100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In high-stakes applications, reliable confidence estimates are as important as the predictions themselves.
arXiv:2509. 15120v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals.
arXiv:2607. 00931v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predicting cancer drug response from transcriptomic profiles is a cornerstone of precision oncology, yet the scientific value of machine learning models hinges not solely on predictive accuracy, but also on their capacity to generate reliable biological insights.