arXiv:2607. 03161v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In selective deployment, practitioners act only on a model-chosen subset of individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects, but marginal conformal guarantees need not control reliability on that selected subset.
By Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng Zhang
arXiv:2608. 17678v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Drug discovery and development underpins healthcare but remains costly and failure-prone.
By Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba, Seungjin Choi, Hyunjin Shin
arXiv:2607. 06605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is being adopted in drug discovery to put an honest number on model reliability: pick an error rate alpha, and the method returns prediction sets containing the true label with probability at least 1 - alpha.
By Muhammadjon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States), Mustafojon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States)
arXiv:2605. 20726v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern applications of conformal inference to multiple testing problems, such as outlier detection and candidate selection, often involve selecting test samples whose conformal p-values fall below a threshold.
By Ziang Song, Ying Jin, Emmanuel J. Cand\`es
arXiv:2509. 15120v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals.
By Yahav Cohen, Jacob Goldberger, Tom Tirer
arXiv:2602. 14913v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts.
By Farbod Siahkali, Ashwin Verma, Vijay Gupta
arXiv:2604. 11305v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal selection (CS) uses calibration data to identify test inputs whose unobserved outcomes are likely to satisfy a pre-specified minimal quality requirement, while controlling the false discovery rate (FDR).
By Meiyi Zhu, Osvaldo Simeone
arXiv:2606. 11865v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient.
By Seungjin Choi
Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms.
arXiv:2510. 05566v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks.
By Zhexiao Lin, Yuanyuan Li, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Gao, Michael von Gablenz
arXiv:2607. 08347v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Active testing provides a label--efficient approach to risk estimation by adaptively selecting which test points should be labelled.
By Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Valentin Kilian, Daolang Huang, Tom Rainforth, Fran\c{c}ois Caron
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
By Seungjin Choi