arXiv:2607. 03161v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In selective deployment, practitioners act only on a model-chosen subset of individuals based on predicted conditional average treatment effects, but marginal conformal guarantees need not control reliability on that selected subset.
By Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng Zhang
The paper introduces a conformal prediction framework designed for molecular property prediction under label shift. By weighting conformal scores with marginal label probability ratios, it generates statistically rigorous prediction intervals without retraining, enabling robust uncertainty quantification when property distributions change. This approach provides actionable confidence measures that improve the reliability of AI-driven predictions in drug discovery.
By Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba, Seungjin Choi, Hyunjin Shin
The paper introduces the Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Score (LSA score), a nonconformity measure for conformal prediction that corrects Bayesian scores under label shift by applying an importance-weighted transformation of the source predictive distribution. Unlike residual-based scores that produce uniform-width intervals, the LSA score yields shorter, adaptive intervals while maintaining comparable coverage in the target domain. Experiments on molecular property prediction demonstrate that the LSA score outperforms both residual-based and source-based Bayesian scores, though all methods experience some coverage loss under stronger shifts due to density-ratio estimation challenges.
By Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba, Seungjin Choi, Hyunjin Shin
arXiv:2607. 06605v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction is being adopted in drug discovery to put an honest number on model reliability: pick an error rate alpha, and the method returns prediction sets containing the true label with probability at least 1 - alpha.
By Muhammadjon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States), Mustafojon Tursunbadalov (School of Science and Technology, Champions College Prep, United States)
arXiv:2605. 20726v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern applications of conformal inference to multiple testing problems, such as outlier detection and candidate selection, often involve selecting test samples whose conformal p-values fall below a threshold.
By Ziang Song, Ying Jin, Emmanuel J. Cand\`es
arXiv:2509. 15120v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals.
By Yahav Cohen, Jacob Goldberger, Tom Tirer