Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust. Consensus scoring and ensemble methods improve mean accuracy but treat all predictions identically without interpretable confidence measures or uncertainty decomposition, ignoring the chemical context of each protein-ligand pair.
CaliPPer is a post‑hoc framework that calibrates and predicts the performance of binding‑prediction models by combining a multi‑chain Sample‑to‑Domain Distance (S2DD) metric with distance‑aware Bayesian recalibration. It operates at three resolutions—generalisability score, aggregate performance prediction, and per‑sample confidence—achieving strong distance‑performance correlations (|r| = 0.80–0.92) and low prediction errors for AUROC, AP, and F1. In retrospective analyses of five published studies, CaliPPer increased true discovery rates, improving AUROC by up to +0.20 on unseen epitopes and variants and raising confirmed neoantigen findings from 0/5 to 3/5.
By Jian-Qing Zheng, Hantao Lou, Zinan Yin, Sam Farrar, Yuze Zhou, Elie Antoun, Xiangxi Wang, Xuetao Cao, Tao Dong
ProbeMatchDTI is a new framework for drug‑target interaction prediction that uses probe‑driven pattern matching to preserve weak biochemical signals. It introduces IterProbe, which retains contextual states across refinement depths and selects them with learnable probes, and BindingProbe, which models drug‑protein complementarity at both local and whole‑pair levels. Experiments show that ProbeMatchDTI outperforms existing methods, improving AUC‑ROC by 2.0% on BindingDB and 0.5% on DrugBank, and its predictions can be integrated into downstream drug‑discovery workflows.
By Quan Hao, Mengyue Fan, Zifan Dong, Youru Li, Jianduo Zhao, Lechuan Xu, Hao Zhang, Fei Xia, Jigang Wang, Chong Qiu, Liguo Zhang
ProbeMatchDTI introduces a probe-driven framework for drug‑target interaction prediction that preserves weak biochemical signals by using IterProbe to retain contextual states and BindingProbe to model cross‑entity complementarity at multiple scales. The method improves AUC‑ROC by 2.0% on BindingDB and 0.5% on DrugBank compared to prior biochemical representation learning approaches. Feature‑level analyses confirm the effectiveness of the probe-driven pattern matching, and the predictions are linked to an evidence‑guided downstream drug‑discovery workflow for candidate refinement and validation planning.
The paper introduces a conformal prediction framework designed for molecular property prediction under label shift. By weighting conformal scores with marginal label probability ratios, it generates statistically rigorous prediction intervals without retraining, enabling robust uncertainty quantification when property distributions change. This approach provides actionable confidence measures that improve the reliability of AI-driven predictions in drug discovery.
By Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeon Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba, Seungjin Choi, Hyunjin Shin
arXiv:2607. 19237v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Designing small molecule ligands that bind with high affinity to specific protein pockets is a fundamental goal in drug discovery, as small molecules constitute a major fraction of approved therapeutics.
By Yiming Qin, Kai Yi, Miruna Cretu, Sjors H. W. Scheres, Pietro Li\`o, Pascal Frossard