arXiv AI

Triadic Werewolf: A Jester Role for Multi-Hop Theory of Mind in LLMs

arXiv:2606. 27909v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Theory-of-mind evaluations of large language models typically use dyadic social-deduction games, where every observable cue points to a single hidden side, so a model with strong language priors can score well without ever simulating opponents' incentives.

arXiv AI
Sep 21

Why Do LLMs Struggle in Strategic Play? Broken Links Between Observations, Beliefs, and Actions

The paper investigates why large language models (LLMs) struggle in strategic decision-making under incomplete information. It identifies two key gaps: an observation‑belief gap where LLMs’ internal representations of game states are accurate but brittle, and a belief‑action gap where converting these internal beliefs into actions is weak, leading to suboptimal payoffs. Experiments with Llama 3.1, Qwen3, and gpt‑oss confirm that acting optimally on decoded beliefs would improve outcomes in most games, highlighting a bottleneck in belief‑to‑action conversion.

By Jan Sobotka, Mustafa O. Karabag, Ufuk Topcu
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 14

Do LLMs Trust the Accuser or the Accusation? Measuring Belief Shifts in Werewolf

The paper introduces a belief‑shift evaluation benchmark for large language models (LLMs) using the social‑deduction game Werewolf. By annotating suspicion and accusation messages in LLM‑played games, the authors measure how a village‑side model’s beliefs change after each message, evaluating 40 open‑weight LLMs on 1,224 annotated messages. Results show that larger models better distinguish wolves from villagers, yet accusations still heavily sway beliefs, especially when the accuser is trusted, and even when the accuser is wolf‑aligned. "whyItMatters":"The study highlights that current open‑weight LLMs up to 120B parameters still struggle to integrate accusation content with source trust in strategic communication, revealing limitations in their belief‑updating capabilities in complex social contexts."

By Yu-Yu Yang, Ti-Rong Wu, Hung Guei, Hsing-Yu Chen, I-Chen Wu