arXiv Machine Learning

Ranking Prior Alignment for Credit Risk Modeling: When Do External Priors Matter?

The paper introduces Ranking Prior Alignment, a model‑agnostic framework that injects external ranking priors—derived from domain experts, teacher models, or large language models—into credit‑risk scoring models via a temperature‑scaled KL divergence loss. It unifies neural (MIL attention) and tree‑based (XGBoost) architectures under a single loss formulation, requiring no external model at inference and tolerating significant annotation noise. Experiments on a large industrial dataset and public Amex data show consistent AUC gains across multiple model families, with the benefits increasing when data, model capacity, or feature quality are limited.

arXiv Machine Learning

Oct 12

When Do External Priors Help Low-Resource Structured Prediction? A Ranking-Level Alignment Study

The paper investigates when external priors (teacher models, LLMs, or domain experts) help low‑resource structured prediction, introducing Ranking Prior Alignment (RPA) as a model‑agnostic objective that aligns a model’s ranking distribution to an external prior via a temperature‑scaled KL loss. Experiments on tree‑ensemble and multiple‑instance‑learning tasks show that a prior’s benefit depends on its quality (rank correlation with labels) and the granularity of alignment: high‑quality priors improve performance in cross‑sample tree alignment but can hurt within‑bag MIL alignment, while zero‑information priors act as entropy regularization. The authors propose a two‑factor decision rule and a protocol to separate information transfer from regularization.

By Qiye Lu, Jiang Ji, Liang Zhang

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arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 16

Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?

arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.

By Bart Baesens, Andreas Goethals, Stefan Lessmann, Simon De Vos, Cristi\'an Bravo, David Martens, Victor Medina-Olivares, Christophe Mues, Maria Oskarsd\'ottir, Seppe vanden Broucke, Tony Van Gestel, Tim Verdonck, Wouter Verbeke

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arXiv AI

Sep 30

Alignment Forecasting: Predicting Misalignment From Training Data

The paper introduces Alignment Forecasting, a method for predicting whether fine‑tuning a language model on a given dataset will increase specific alignment failures such as deception or sycophancy. It presents ALIGNMENTFORECASTBENCH, a benchmark of over 5,000 forecasting questions across many models, datasets, and failure modes, and shows that a simple forecasting scaffold using an LLM’s assessment of dataset bias can outperform baseline forecasters. The authors demonstrate that filtering out high‑risk training examples identified by the forecaster can improve alignment in multiple‑choice evaluations, though benefits in open‑ended conversations remain uncertain.

By Chen Yueh-Han, Bruce W. Lee, Ilia Sucholutsky, Tomek Korbak

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arXiv Machine Learning

Sep 1

When Does a Classifier Help an LLM? Classifier-Guided Prompting and Hybrid Classifier-LLM Models for Credit-Default Prediction

arXiv:2608.30086v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Credit-default prediction is an important task in financial decision making. Traditional methods use fitted classifiers such as logistic regression a...

By Rishi Datta, Lavanya Prahallad

llms efficiency

arXiv AI

Aug 28

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunications: A Framework for CRM Integration

The paper presents a framework for integrating explainable AI into customer churn prediction for telecommunications. It benchmarks four classifiers—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—on the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset, finding comparable performance with Logistic Regression achieving the highest AUC-ROC and LightGBM the highest accuracy. Explanations are provided via SHAP and LIME at both global and instance levels, and a four‑layer CRM integration architecture is proposed to translate risk scores and attribution vectors into actionable retention strategies, projecting a 3.3–5.3 percentage point reduction in churn and $199K–$319K savings per campaign cycle.

By Sandeep Gaddamwar

computer-vision benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 11

Accurate Ensembles, Fragile Narratives: Multi-Scale Stacking and a Fidelity Audit of LLM-Generated Explanations for Credit Risk

arXiv:2608. 08126v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Credit scoring increasingly relies on models whose decision logic cannot be read off their parameters, in tension with supervisory expectations that adverse decisions be explainable.

By Gregorius Reynaldi Pratama, Kuo-Kun Tseng

llms

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 25

Model-agnostic Mitigation Strategies of Data Imbalance for Regression

arXiv:2506. 01486v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data imbalance persists as a pervasive challenge in regression tasks, introducing bias in model performance and undermining predictive reliability.

By Jelke Wibbeke, Sebastian Rohjans, Andreas Rauh

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arXiv Computation and Language

Oct 1

Listening to the Wise Few: Query-Key Alignment Unlocks Latent Correct Answers in Large Language Models

arXiv:2410.02343v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) routinely fail to output the correct option in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) while encoding the answer int...

By Eduard Tulchinskii, Kristian Kuznetsov, Laida Kushnareva, Anastasia Voznyuk, Andrei Andriiainen, Irina Piontkovskaya, Evgeny Burnaev, Serguei Barannikov

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arXiv AI

Jun 9

Customer Churn Prediction on Structured Data Using FT-Transformer and Stacking Ensembles

arXiv:2606. 07582v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Customer churn prediction is essential across data-driven industries such as insurance, digital banking, eCommerce, and subscription platforms, where retaining existing customers is typically more cost-effective than acquiring new ones.

By Joyjit Roy, Samaresh Kumar Singh, Laxmi Shaw

llms benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 2

LeNEPA: No-Augmentation Next-Latent Prediction for Time-Series Representation Learning

arXiv:2607. 00958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances.

By Alexander Chemeris, Ming Jin, Randall Balestriero

rag

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 2

BLISS: A Lightweight Bilevel Influence Scoring Method for Data Selection in Language Model Pretraining

arXiv:2510. 06048v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective data selection is essential for pretraining large language models (LLMs), enhancing efficiency and improving generalization to downstream tasks.

By Jie Hao, Rui Yu, Wei Zhang, Huixia Wang, Jie Xu, Mingrui Liu

llms benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 24

DataPrep-Bench: Benchmarking LLMs as Training Data Preparators

arXiv:2607. 20465v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The quality of training data fundamentally determines the capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet no unified benchmark exists to measure how well LLMs, agents, and data-centric workflows actually prepare training data end to end.

By Hao Liang, Qifeng Cai, Yibo Lin, Jianzhuo Du, Qifeng Xia, Sizhe Qiu, Linzhuang Sun, Meiyi Qiang, Zhaoyang Han, Xiaochen Ma, Bohan Zeng, Ruichuan An, Conghui He, Wentao Zhang

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