arXiv:2608.30086v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Credit-default prediction is an important task in financial decision making. Traditional methods use fitted classifiers such as logistic regression a...
By Rishi Datta, Lavanya Prahallad
arXiv:2608. 19760v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Audited against causal ground truth from executed replay in a single-agent tool environment (ALFWorld), none of the step-level credit signals used to train LLM agents -- LLM-judge scores, outcome-conditioned logprob ratios, or the policy's own confidence -- identifies which steps causally matter better than chance.
By Haiyue Zhang
arXiv:2608. 14509v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Systems that ask a language model to reach a conclusion from many sources usually concatenate them into one prompt.
By Zhelun Wu
MemGuard-Alpha evaluates whether membership inference attacks (MIA) can detect memorization in large language models (LLMs) used for financial alpha signals. The study combines five MIA methods with a temporal proximity feature and a cross-model disagreement metric, then audits them across seven LLMs, 50 S&P 100 stocks, and 299,600 prompt-model pairs. Findings show that temporal proximity alone perfectly predicts in-sample status, MIA discriminative power largely stems from model scale differences, and filtering based on contamination scores does not improve risk-adjusted performance once transaction costs are considered.
By Anisha Roy, Dip Roy
The study investigates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can translate technical explanations from credit risk models into stakeholder-friendly narratives. Using Freddie Mac loan data, the authors compare standard tabular models (XGBoost + SHAP) with alternative data pipelines (GNN + GNNExplainer and a bimodal mix) and generate explanations with three LLM configurations: a small fine‑tuned Gemma 3 4B, a large fine‑tuned DeepSeek R1 70B, and a zero‑shot Gemini 2.5. Findings show that the quality of explanations is more dependent on the evidence representation than on the LLM, that narratives reliably identify influential factors but are less consistent about the direction of influence, and that credit professionals demand higher evidentiary standards than non‑professionals.
By Sahab Zandi, Noah Kostesku, Christophe Mues, Mar\'ia \'Oskarsd\'ottir, Cristi\'an Bravo
arXiv:2608. 16147v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Class-imbalance handling is routinely evaluated on a single benchmark dataset, and the resulting conclusions are reported as if they were properties of the method.
By Diyorbek Musaev