arXiv Machine Learning

Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?

arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.

arXiv AI
Jun 30

Beyond IID: How General Are Tabular Foundation Models, Really?

arXiv:2606. 30410v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foundation models for predictive machine learning on tabular data have recently gained significant traction in academia and industry.

By Lennart Purucker, Andrej Tschalzev, Nick Erickson, Gioia Blayer, David Holzm\"uller, Alan Arazi, Alexander Pfefferle, Mustafa Tajjar, Ga\"el Varoquaux, Frank Hutter
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

Mitra-v2 Technical Report

Mitra‑v2 is a tabular foundation model that achieves state‑of‑the‑art performance on a wide range of real‑world classification and regression tasks, including credit‑risk scoring, clinical prediction, equipment‑failure detection, and house‑price estimation. Trained solely on synthetic data with a larger and more diverse pretraining distribution than its predecessor, it uses a compact 2D Transformer backbone and improved optimization to handle longer contexts and larger feature spaces. On the TabArena and TALENT benchmarks, Mitra‑v2 outperforms leading models such as TabPFN‑3 and TabICLv2, matching the performance of a 1.6B‑parameter TabFM with only 77M parameters, and ranks first on multi‑class classification tasks with more than ten classes.

By Yefan Tao (Bernie), Xiyuan Zhang (Bernie), Xinyi Liu (Bernie), Boran Han (Bernie), Danielle Maddix (Bernie), Haoyang Fang (Bernie), Zhen Han (Bernie), Jiading Gai (Bernie), Xuanqing Liu (Bernie), Michael Bohlke-Schneider (Bernie), Yuyang (Bernie), Wang, Gerald Friedland, Kevan Mah, Chris Lee, Chris Kong
arXiv AI
Aug 19

Communicating Credit Risk with Large Language Models: Evaluation of Explanations from Standard and Alternative Data-Based Models

The study investigates whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can translate technical explanations from credit risk models into stakeholder-friendly narratives. Using Freddie Mac loan data, the authors compare standard tabular models (XGBoost + SHAP) with alternative data pipelines (GNN + GNNExplainer and a bimodal mix) and generate explanations with three LLM configurations: a small fine‑tuned Gemma 3 4B, a large fine‑tuned DeepSeek R1 70B, and a zero‑shot Gemini 2.5. Findings show that the quality of explanations is more dependent on the evidence representation than on the LLM, that narratives reliably identify influential factors but are less consistent about the direction of influence, and that credit professionals demand higher evidentiary standards than non‑professionals.

By Sahab Zandi, Noah Kostesku, Christophe Mues, Mar\'ia \'Oskarsd\'ottir, Cristi\'an Bravo
arXiv AI
Sep 4

Xiaomi-TabLDM: A Tabular Foundation Model Technical Report

Xiaomi-TabLDM is a tabular foundation model that performs classification and regression via in-context learning without task‑specific fine‑tuning. It is pretrained solely on synthetic data from structural causal models, achieving top‑ranked regression results on multiple benchmarks while reducing training and prediction time compared to leading models. The architecture incorporates a three‑stage training strategy, dual‑stream feature grouping, lightweight attention residuals, and sparse mixture‑of‑experts, and it can further improve accuracy through test‑time compute scaling.

By TabLDM Team, Penghui Wang, Wei Liu, Hong Wang, Chengyue Huang, Yuxi Sun, Zirui Wang, Hongming Huang, Quan Wang, Chunxiao Liu, Erli Meng, Bin Wang
arXiv AI
Jun 9

When Tabular Foundation Models Meet Strategic Tabular Data: A Prior Alignment Approach

arXiv:2605. 19662v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Tabular foundation models based on pretrained prior-data fitted networks~(PFNs) have shown strong generalization on diverse tabular tasks, but they are typically designed for \emph{non-strategic} settings where data distributions are independent of deployed classifiers.

By Xinpeng Lv, Yunxin Mao, Renzhe Xu, Chunyuan Zheng, Yikai Chen, Haoxuan Li, Jinxuan Yang, Kun Kuang, Yuanlong Chen, Mingyang Geng, Wanrong Huang, Shixuan Liu, Shaowu Yang, Wenjing Yang, Zhouchen Lin, Haotian Wang