arXiv Machine Learning

From Unsupervised Subgroups to Hypothetical State-Intervention Policies: An Evaluation of Selected Subgrouping Methods in Observational Health Data

arXiv:2607. 26521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conventional subgroup analyses can yield unstable and difficult-to-interpret conclusions, especially in observational biomedical data where each individual is observed under only one exposure state, true individual treatment effects are unavailable, and causal structure is uncertain.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 7

A Unified Causal Inference Framework for the Desirability of Outcome Ranking Paradigm in Benefit-Risk Evaluation

arXiv:2608. 05244v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We developed a unified covariate-adjusted causal inference framework for estimating the desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) probability for benefit-risk evaluation in randomized trials and observational studies.

By Yuan Feng, Shiyu Shu, Yixin Fang, Ionut Bebu, Toshimitsu Hamasaki, Scott Evans, Guoqing Diao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 31

Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry

arXiv:2607. 27224v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions.

By Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary