The paper presents PAC‑Bayesian reconstruction guarantees for Variational Autoencoders applied to time‑series data. It extends existing bounds, which were limited to i.i.d. settings, to Markovian latent structures, allowing temporal dependencies to be captured without the bounds growing with trajectory length. The authors also provide an example framework showing that the required assumptions are not overly restrictive.
arXiv:2609.37435v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural Koopman autoencoder models have been shown to successfully build a latent embedding with linear dynamics for arbitrary dynamical systems, enabli...
arXiv:2605. 19805v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift.
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
arXiv:2609.38058v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) currently provide state-of-the-art results in forecasting tasks. They are available out-of-the-box and rely on...
arXiv:2507. 23615v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data augmentation is becoming increasingly important across various areas of time series analysis, including forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection.
arXiv:2607. 20521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The state of a dynamic system evolves over time, switching among several latent modes that govern its observable behavior.
arXiv:2601. 09776v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As black box models and pretrained models gain traction in time series applications, understanding and explaining their predictions becomes increasingly vital, especially in high-stakes domains where interpretability and trust are essential.
arXiv:2506. 01544v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations (TV-INRs), a probabilistic framework for modeling irregular multivariate time series that enables efficient and accurate individualized imputation and forecasting.
arXiv:2603. 15055v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present a theory-guided generalized Bayesian methodology for spatio-temporal raster data, which we use to train an ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks with Gaussian-distributed weights.
HALO introduces a hyperspherical VAE to constrain continuous latent representations to a fixed‑radius shell, stabilizing numerical fluctuations. It then employs a masked autoregressive model that balances parallel decoding with temporal correlation learning, reducing inference steps and improving stability. Experiments show HALO achieves state‑of‑the‑art generation performance with significantly better inference efficiency compared to existing baselines.
arXiv:2607. 12391v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present a diffusion based model for asynchronous time series prediction, where the goal is to predict the next inter event time and event type.