arXiv:2605. 11287v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A persistent paradox in time-series forecasting is that structurally simple MLP and linear models often outperform high-capacity Transformers.
By Jevon Twitty, Vinh Pham, Nitiwith Rotchanarak, Viresh Pati, Yubin Kim, Shihao Yang, Jiecheng Lu
HALO introduces a hyperspherical VAE to constrain continuous latent representations to a fixed‑radius shell, stabilizing numerical fluctuations. It then employs a masked autoregressive model that balances parallel decoding with temporal correlation learning, reducing inference steps and improving stability. Experiments show HALO achieves state‑of‑the‑art generation performance with significantly better inference efficiency compared to existing baselines.
By Chunyi Hou, Xiangfei Qiu, Hanyin Cheng, Yutong Li, Bin Yang
arXiv:2606. 05264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences.
By Moulik Gupta (Birla AI Labs), Dhruv Kumar (Birla AI Labs, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani), Murari Mandal (Birla AI Labs, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology), Saurabh Deshpande (Birla AI Labs)
arXiv:2607. 19404v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time series encode structural patterns that unfold across multiple temporal scales, yet most forecasting backbones treat learned representations as transient byproducts of prediction, leaving the organizational geometry of these patterns underexploited.
By Xingsheng Chen, Deyu Yi, Siu-Ming Yiu
ProtoFlow is a new multivariate time series forecasting framework that combines vector‑quantized autoencoding with prototype‑guided flow matching. It maps sequences into a discrete latent space, constructs a structured prior from the learned VQ codebook, and trains a DiT‑based rectified flow to transport samples from this prior to future latent representations conditioned on past observations. By replacing generic Gaussian noise with a learned prototype prior, ProtoFlow eliminates autoregressive rollout mismatch and achieves faster training convergence while delivering superior forecasting performance on benchmark datasets.
By Shibo Feng, Wanjin Feng, Yang Qiu, Deheng Ye, Peilin Zhao, Chunyan Miao
arXiv:2609.37435v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Neural Koopman autoencoder models have been shown to successfully build a latent embedding with linear dynamics for arbitrary dynamical systems, enabli...
By Anthony Frion, Lucas Drumetz, Guillaume Tochon, Mauro Dalla Mura, Ali Can Bekar, Abdeldjalil A\"issa El Bey
arXiv:2602. 03564v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series forecasting can be viewed as a generative problem that requires both semantic understanding over contextual conditions and stochastic modeling of continuous temporal dynamics.
By Mingyue Cheng, Yaguo Liu, Daoyu Wang, Xiaoyu Tao, Qi Liu
WorldTS is a new forecasting framework that models latent dynamics conditioned on multimodal covariates to improve time‑series prediction. It uses a two‑stage training process: first learning latent state dynamics from historical data and covariates, then training a decoder to map predicted latent states back to future observations. Experiments on 21 real‑world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.
By Yuhan Zhu, Xiangfei Qiu, Hanyin Cheng, Wangmeng Shen, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Jilin Hu, Christian S. Jensen
arXiv:2606. 10678v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies.
By Amrijit Biswas, Mustafa Kamal, Robin Krambroeckers, M. M. Lutfe Elahi, Sifat Momen, Nabeel Mohammed, Shafin Rahman
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
By Alexander Marusov, Dmitry Anikin, Petr Sokerin, Vitaliy Pozdnyakov, Ilya Kuleshov, Alexey Zaytsev
The paper introduces a simple, model‑agnostic time‑domain augmentation called Sliding‑Window Reordering with Overlap Averaging. It transforms the joint input‑target sequence into overlapping windows, randomly reorders a fraction of them based on a variance criterion, and reconstructs the sequence by averaging overlaps to generate synthetic samples with controlled variation and minimal temporal distortion. Experiments show strong performance gains across nine long‑term forecasting benchmarks and four short‑term traffic benchmarks, with detailed ablations and diagnostics highlighting the effectiveness of each design choice.
By Jafar Bakhshaliyev, Johannes Burchert, Niels Landwehr, Lars Schmidt-Thieme
arXiv:2501. 04339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure.
By Domjan Baric, Davor Horvatic