SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.
By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
This study introduces the first controlled benchmark of generative models for weather data assimilation using real station observations from 11,849 NOAA MADIS stations across the U.S. It evaluates key design choices—diffusion vs. flow matching, pixel vs. latent-space formulations, and inference-time conditioning strategies—against a classical 3D-Var baseline. The benchmark finds that learned generative priors and full-gradient guidance improve RMSE over ERA5, while other design variations offer minimal benefit, especially under sparse observation conditions.
By Ruizhe Huang, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Sherrie Wang
arXiv:2610.00728v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Weather reanalysis products rely on computationally intensive numerical weather predictions followed by data assimilation that corrects the forecas...
By Ruizhe Huang, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Sherrie Wang
A new framework for Bayesian data assimilation is presented that leverages pretrained stochastic interpolants, flow matching, and diffusion models as posterior samplers without retraining. By conditioning the interpolant path on observations, a shared likelihood‑score correction is applied to the drift or velocity, unifying stochastic and deterministic sampling methods. The approach yields exact posterior samples when the intermediate likelihood score is known, and practical approximations use a Gaussian surrogate with bias‑corrected mean and inflated covariance, enabling tractable high‑dimensional applications such as linear‑Gaussian dynamics, stochastic Navier‑Stokes, and urban airflow simulations with up to $O(10^4)$ degrees of freedom.
By Nikolaj T. M\"ucke, Benjamin Sanderse
ProtoFlow is a new multivariate time series forecasting framework that combines vector‑quantized autoencoding with prototype‑guided flow matching. It maps sequences into a discrete latent space, constructs a structured prior from the learned VQ codebook, and trains a DiT‑based rectified flow to transport samples from this prior to future latent representations conditioned on past observations. By replacing generic Gaussian noise with a learned prototype prior, ProtoFlow eliminates autoregressive rollout mismatch and achieves faster training convergence while delivering superior forecasting performance on benchmark datasets.
By Shibo Feng, Wanjin Feng, Yang Qiu, Deheng Ye, Peilin Zhao, Chunyan Miao
arXiv:2607. 01012v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data assimilation models state dynamics conditioned on sequential observations, and has wide-ranging scientific applications.
By Chandni Nagda, Mayank Shrivastavam Gudrun Thorkelsdottir, Gan Zhang, Morteza Mardani, Arindam Banerjee
arXiv:2602.02832v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Forward forecasting and data assimilation are the two important aspects in physical simulation: one propagates the state forward, the other recover...
By Rares Grozavescu, Etienne Meunier, Pengyu Zhang, Mark Girolami
arXiv:2605. 05540v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories.
By Tianyue Yang, Xiao Xue
arXiv:2608. 14744v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recovering high-resolution states from sparse, low-resolution observations is a central challenge in scientific machine learning and data assimilation.
By Mrigank Dhingra, Ramchandran Muthukumar, Rebecca Willett, Omer San
arXiv:2609.37435v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Neural Koopman autoencoder models have been shown to successfully build a latent embedding with linear dynamics for arbitrary dynamical systems, enabli...
By Anthony Frion, Lucas Drumetz, Guillaume Tochon, Mauro Dalla Mura, Ali Can Bekar, Abdeldjalil A\"issa El Bey
arXiv:2608. 06107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models.
By Guillaume Couairon, Alexis Jacq, Yu-Han Wu, Renu Singh, Yana Hasson, Quentin Berthet, Romuald Elie