arXiv:2605. 19805v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift.
arXiv:2607. 28035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Irregular multivariate time series are widely encountered in applications such as healthcare monitoring, human activity recognition, and environmental sensing.
HALO introduces a hyperspherical VAE to constrain continuous latent representations to a fixed‑radius shell, stabilizing numerical fluctuations. It then employs a masked autoregressive model that balances parallel decoding with temporal correlation learning, reducing inference steps and improving stability. Experiments show HALO achieves state‑of‑the‑art generation performance with significantly better inference efficiency compared to existing baselines.
arXiv:2606. 15172v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Synthesizing realistic time series with generative models has wide-ranging applications in real-world scenarios.
arXiv:2605. 05540v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories.
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
The paper presents PAC‑Bayesian reconstruction guarantees for Variational Autoencoders applied to time‑series data. It extends existing bounds, which were limited to i.i.d. settings, to Markovian latent structures, allowing temporal dependencies to be captured without the bounds growing with trajectory length. The authors also provide an example framework showing that the required assumptions are not overly restrictive.
RDDMPI introduces a residual denoising diffusion model for multivariate time series imputation. By decomposing the missing signal into a baseline reconstruction and a residual uncertainty component, the method conditions the diffusion process on both the completed signal and its latent representation, using a reliability-aware mechanism to balance baseline influence. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that this approach improves reconstruction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to prior diffusion-based methods.
The paper introduces the Masked Diffusion Time-series Imputation Model (MDTIM), which uses a masked diffusion training paradigm to directly predict original values for time series imputation. It separates missing and observed data via a MASK token and employs Stochastic Discretization to convert continuous values into ordinal-aware tokens, preserving temporal dynamics. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that MDTIM outperforms existing deterministic and generative baselines in robustness and scalability across various missing data scenarios.
arXiv:2507. 23615v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data augmentation is becoming increasingly important across various areas of time series analysis, including forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection.
arXiv:2608. 06107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models.
arXiv:2606. 05264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences.
arXiv:2608. 14067v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models offer a natural way to model uncertainty in time series forecasting, yet their iterative sampling process is often treated as a uniformly beneficial refinement procedure.