arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 15
LatentFlow: A General Framework for Conditioning Stochastic Processes
arXiv:2607. 12922v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition.
Scan-Parallel Variational Inference for event-driven Latent Jump Models
The paper introduces latent jump models (LJMs) for continuous-time latent state-space modeling, where the latent state evolves deterministically between Poisson-driven events and experiences learned instantaneous jumps at each event. It presents a tractable event-augmented ELBO and a novel Scan-Parallel Variational Inference (SPVI) method that samples the full latent event configuration before evaluating state recurrence, enabling logarithmic temporal depth and fast, scalable training. Experiments on synthetic and real irregular time series show that LJMs achieve competitive forecast accuracy with fewer latent updates and train one to two orders of magnitude faster than sequential baselines.
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Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 14
LatentFlow: A General Framework for Conditioning Stochastic Processes
Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions.
arXiv AI
Jun 3
Latent Laplace Diffusion for Irregular Multivariate Time Series
arXiv:2605. 19805v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift.
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23
One-Step Generative Surrogate Models via Block-Triangular Joint Drifting
The paper introduces block‑triangular joint drifting, a method that applies a projected drift field to the joint distribution of consecutive states, enabling one‑step generative surrogate models for stochastic transition dynamics. This architecture preserves the current‑state marginal while directly sampling the conditional distribution of next states, allowing stochastic trajectories to be generated with a single model evaluation per time step. Experiments show that the approach achieves accurate marginal and trajectory‑dependent statistics with favorable accuracy‑cost tradeoffs compared to deterministic, diffusion, flow, and distillation‑based generative surrogates.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 28
Autoregressive One-Step Generative Modeling for Dynamical System Forecasting
arXiv:2605. 05540v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2
Large-scale Uncertainty Quantification for Latent Variable Models Using Subsampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo
arXiv:2606. 00309v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics combined with Gibbs updates (SGLD--Gibbs) provides a highly scalable approach to approximate Bayesian inference in latent variable models.
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 8
Broadly Applicable Approximate MCMC for Switching Stochastic Differential Equations Using Uniformization and Time-Conditioned Factorized Neural Likelihood Estimation
arXiv:2610.10194v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Switching stochastic differential equations (SSDEs) describe continuous-time dynamics whose parameters switch according to a latent regime process th...
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 30
HALO: Enhancing Time Series Generation via Hyperspherical Latents and Masked AutoregRessive Modeling
HALO introduces a hyperspherical VAE to constrain continuous latent representations to a fixed‑radius shell, stabilizing numerical fluctuations. It then employs a masked autoregressive model that balances parallel decoding with temporal correlation learning, reducing inference steps and improving stability. Experiments show HALO achieves state‑of‑the‑art generation performance with significantly better inference efficiency compared to existing baselines.
arXiv AI
Aug 17
Your Probabilistic JEPA Is Secretly a Hidden Markov Model: A State-Space Interpretation of Joint-Embedding Predictive Learning
arXiv:2608. 13621v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A hidden Markov model (HMM) combines three roles: inference of a hidden-state belief from observations, propagation through a Markov transition, and emission back to observation space.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 22
Neural Kolmogorov Equations: Parallelizable Learning of Stochastic Dynamics under General Noise
arXiv:2607. 19173v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning noisy or stochastic dynamics directly from data; however, existing approaches largely assume uncoupled and continuous noise, limiting their applicability to realistic stochastic drivers, and often scale poorly in time, requiring expensive autoregressive training.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2
TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates
arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9
In-Context Learning of Stochastic Differential Equations with Foundation Inference Models
arXiv:2502. 19049v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) describe dynamical systems where deterministic flows, governed by a drift function, are superimposed with random fluctuations, dictated by a diffusion function.