arXiv:2602.02832v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Forward forecasting and data assimilation are the two important aspects in physical simulation: one propagates the state forward, the other recover...
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
The paper presents PAC‑Bayesian reconstruction guarantees for Variational Autoencoders applied to time‑series data. It extends existing bounds, which were limited to i.i.d. settings, to Markovian latent structures, allowing temporal dependencies to be captured without the bounds growing with trajectory length. The authors also provide an example framework showing that the required assumptions are not overly restrictive.
arXiv:2507. 23615v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data augmentation is becoming increasingly important across various areas of time series analysis, including forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection.
Neural PDE solvers provide efficient surrogates for time-dependent physical systems, but autoregressive prediction over long horizons remains challenging because local errors can induce distribution s...
The paper introduces a variational framework called VAMO that incorporates latent Markov dynamics for neural PDE solvers, aiming to improve long‑horizon predictions by mitigating error accumulation. By representing physical states as latent distributions and evolving them through probabilistic transitions, the method aligns learned dynamics with a spectral geometry induced by structured Gaussian perturbations. Experiments on fluid‑dynamics benchmarks show that VAMO reduces error growth and enhances rollout stability compared to deterministic and noise‑injection baselines.
The paper introduces K$^2$SVD, a method that learns the leading singular functions of the Koopman operator by optimizing a Hilbert-Schmidt objective, producing a low‑rank, interpretable Koopman representation with a compact latent space. In this space, temporal evolution is modeled with a linear Gaussian state‑space model and inference is performed via Kalman filtering to reduce noise accumulation in multi‑step predictions. Experiments demonstrate that K$^2$SVD outperforms state‑of‑the‑art methods on multiple datasets, achieving faster prediction speeds and lower computational cost.
arXiv:2607. 20521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The state of a dynamic system evolves over time, switching among several latent modes that govern its observable behavior.
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
arXiv:2602.23188v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose an efficient retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that attains accuracy comparable to full retraining while...
The paper presents a lightweight retraining strategy for a parameterized Reduced Order Model (ROM) that achieves full‑model accuracy using only a fraction of the computational effort and sparse observations. The ROM architecture combines a Variational Autoencoder for dimensionality reduction with a transformer network that evolves latent states while accounting for the Reynolds number as an external control variable. By leveraging the probabilistic VAE, the method generates trajectory ensembles and uncertainty estimates, and adapts to out‑of‑sample parameters through sparse data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter, focusing retraining on the autoencoder to correct latent manifold distortions.
arXiv:2606. 25900v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) belong to a family of autoencoders with probabilistic properties, making them well suited for generating data by producing a smooth and continuous latent space.