arXiv Machine Learning

Uncovering Insights of Compound Flooding with Data-Driven AI

arXiv:2506. 04281v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 16

Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics

arXiv:2510. 02605v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While many modern studies are dedicated to ML-based large-sample hydrologic modeling, these efforts have not necessarily translated into predictive improvements that are grounded in enhanced physical-conceptual understanding.

By Yuan-Heng Wang, Yang Yang, Fabio Ciulla, Hoshin V. Gupta, Charuleka Varadharajan
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 28

HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

arXiv:2607. 23983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer.

By Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li, Xu Shan, Jia Feng, Shunan Zhou, Xudong Zhou, Tiantian Xing, Jiale Guo, Xiaoyi Dong, Gaoyu Liu, Xiaohuan Liu, Haiqing Pu, Qingwen Deng, Xun Zhang, Zhongrun Xiang, Haiyang Qian, Ying Yan, Yongkang Xu, Nuo Lei, Tianlong Jia, Baoying Shan, Carlo De Michele
arXiv AI
Jul 28

AIFL: A Global Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model Using a Deterministic LSTM Pre-trained on ERA5-Land and Fine-tuned on IFS

arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.

By Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Ois\'in M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

DELUGE: Towards Continental-Scale Daily Pluvial Flood Damage Prediction via Interpretable Conditioning on Foundation Model Embeddings

arXiv:2607. 16050v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use.

By Yuya Kawakami, Daniel Cayan, Dongyu Liu, Kwan-Liu Ma, Tom Corringham
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction

arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.

By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 9

SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland

arXiv:2605. 16163v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Skillful medium-range precipitation forecasting at kilometer scale remains challenging over complex terrain because precipitation arises from multiscale nonlinear processes that global models cannot explicitly resolve at affordable cost.

By Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato, Filippo Quarenghi, Daniele Nerini, Thibaut Loiseau, Kyle van de Langemheen, Tom Beucler
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Enhancing the Forecasting Capability of Multi-Model Blending Algorithms for Extreme Precipitation via Joint Use of Station and Gridded Observations

arXiv:2607. 04862v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement.

By Yu Wang, Yong Cao, Kan Dai, Yue Shen, Xiaoqing Zeng, Ruixia Zhao