arXiv AI By Matteo Salis, Gabriele Sartor, Rosa Meo, Stefano Ferraris, Abdourrahmane M. Atto

Pure and physics-guided deep learning approaches for spatio-temporal groundwater level prediction

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arXiv AI
Sep 18

Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.

By Etienne Lehembre (CA, LIFO), Pascal Audigane (BRGM), Vincent Nguyen (LIFO), Christel Vrain (LIFO, CA), Thi-Bich-Hanh Dao (LIFO, CA)
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 2

Process-Aware AI for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: A Mass-Conserving Neural Framework with Hydrological Process Constraints

The paper introduces the Mass‑Conserving Perceptron (MCP), a physics‑aware AI framework that enforces conservation laws while learning hydrological process relationships from data. By progressively adding physically meaningful components—such as bounded soil storage, state‑dependent conductivity, variable porosity, infiltration capacity, surface ponding, vertical drainage, and nonlinear water‑table dynamics—to a single MCP storage unit, the authors demonstrate that predictive skill for daily streamflow improves across 15 U.S. catchments. The study finds that the impact of each process representation varies with hydroclimate, with vertical drainage boosting performance in arid and snow‑dominated basins but hindering it in rainfall‑dominated ones, while surface ponding has minimal effect; the best MCP configurations rival LSTM benchmarks while retaining explicit physical interpretability.

By Mohammad A. Farmani, Hoshin V. Gupta, Ali Behrangi, Muhammad Jawad, Sadaf Moghisi, Guo-Yue Niu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Predictors and Orchestrators: Parsimonious Machine Learning within an Agentic AI Harness for Multi-Horizon Karst Aquifer Forecasting

The study presents a deployment‑aware framework for forecasting spring discharge and groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer over 1‑12 week horizons using 79 years of hydroclimatic data. Five machine‑learning families—extreme gradient boosting, extremely randomized trees, LSTM, CNN, and Transformers—were compared, with extreme gradient boosting consistently delivering the highest reliability (R² ≥ 0.94) and strong agreement with operational drought thresholds. The validated models were integrated into a five‑agent operational architecture that automates data acquisition, model selection, prediction, threshold monitoring, verification, literature retrieval, and reporting.

By Pramod Lekhak, Chetan Sharma, Hakan Ba\c{s}a\u{g}ao\u{g}lu, F. Paul Bertetti, Debaditya Chakraborty