arXiv Machine Learning

Resolving Predictive Multiplicity for the Rashomon Set

arXiv:2601. 09071v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The existence of multiple, equally accurate models for a given predictive task leads to predictive multiplicity, where a Rashomon set of models achieve similar accuracy but diverge in their individual predictions.

arXiv AI
Sep 2

Measuring consistency via ensemble margin and local prediction variability: Auditing decision systems in the presence of predictive multiplicity

The paper introduces a new consistency criterion for auditing decision systems that combines ensemble margin with local prediction variability to address predictive multiplicity, or the Rashomon effect. It shows that finite ensembles converge to the expected model’s consistency score as ensemble size and sample count grow, and demonstrates that ensembling models from the Rashomon set reduces unchecked incorrect predictions while keeping diversions moderate. Experiments on transformer and fine‑tuned language models for NLP and tabular classification confirm the method’s effectiveness and stronger alignment with existing multiplicity metrics.

By Sinjini Banerjee, Tim Marrinan, Anand D. Sarwate
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

AOE: Exhaustive Out-of-Distribution Detection via Recalibrating Outlier Labels

arXiv:2605. 28021v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for deploying machine learning models in open-world and safety-critical scenarios, where test inputs may deviate from the training distribution and overconfident predictions on unknown samples can lead to unreliable decisions.

By Fengqiang Wan, Qing-Yuan Jiang, Fu Shen, Yang Yang
arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 11

A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models

The paper audits the confidence outputs of seven feed‑forward 3D reconstruction backbones across 13 datasets, evaluating four properties: error ranking, average error‑to‑uncertainty ratio, slope of this ratio, and coverage of the implied error distribution. While confidence ranks errors well, the decoded uncertainty is consistently too small—off by at least 2.4× on median cases—and worsens with higher confidence. A post‑hoc power‑law fit per backbone‑dataset pair improves all four metrics at the dataset level, reducing the median error by 1.35×, but fails to correct coverage for many held‑out scenes, indicating the models lack the correct error scale and distribution shape.

By Nanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller, Daniel Cremers
arXiv AI
6d ago

Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

The paper introduces Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a post‑hoc framework that calibrates each model’s confidence independently and uses these calibrated scores to decide when to accept an early prediction, invoke a stronger model, or combine outputs. CAUC establishes a common reliability scale across heterogeneous models, decoupling deployment policies from specific model pools or budgets. Experiments on six language benchmarks show a 1.9% relative accuracy gain over strong‑model‑only inference while cutting strong‑model calls by about 47%, and on image classification it maintains or improves performance while reducing GFLOPs by up to 57%.

By Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu, Ying Liu, Wei Zhao
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

How Robust Are Automated Fact-Checking Systems? A Cross-Benchmark Evaluation

The paper evaluates the robustness of automated fact‑checking systems by cross‑benchmarking nine models—including random baselines, fine‑tuned transformers, zero‑shot LLMs, and top AVeriTeC 2025 systems—across four datasets from scientific, open‑web, and climate domains. It finds that fine‑tuned models outperform zero‑shot LLMs on ClimateCheck, that system rankings vary strongly with domain and metric, and that replacing retrieved evidence with gold annotations boosts veracity accuracy by 14–22 points, underscoring retrieval as the main bottleneck. The authors provide code, pre‑processed datasets, and results to enable reproducible research.

By Aida Usmanova, Zangir Iklassov, Markus Leippold, Ricardo Usbeck