The paper introduces a new consistency criterion for auditing decision systems that combines ensemble margin with local prediction variability to address predictive multiplicity, or the Rashomon effect. It shows that finite ensembles converge to the expected model’s consistency score as ensemble size and sample count grow, and demonstrates that ensembling models from the Rashomon set reduces unchecked incorrect predictions while keeping diversions moderate. Experiments on transformer and fine‑tuned language models for NLP and tabular classification confirm the method’s effectiveness and stronger alignment with existing multiplicity metrics.
arXiv:2606. 02198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction tasks over individual futures, which are inherently noisy, often admit multiple similarly accurate models.
AdaFuse is an adaptive ensemble decoding framework for large language models that dynamically selects fusion units during generation. It uses an uncertainty-based criterion to decide when to ensemble, applying a diversity-aware scaling strategy in uncertain states while continuing direct generation when confident. Experiments on question answering, arithmetic reasoning, and machine translation show AdaFuse outperforms strong baselines with an average relative improvement of 6.88%.
arXiv:2607. 26368v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial disclosures contain numerical claims, temporal statements, entity references, policy commitments, and risk descriptions that may conflict in qualitatively different ways.
The paper investigates how large language models (LLMs) used as judges in absolute scoring tasks exhibit systematic biases that compromise reliability. It shows that a judge’s task accuracy strongly predicts both its judging accuracy and its directional bias, yet more capable examinee models consistently receive more lenient judgments. To mitigate these biases, the authors propose a calibrated weighted majority voting (WMV) ensemble that estimates judges’ error rates from inter-judge agreement patterns, achieving near-oracle performance without labeled data and improving both accuracy and fairness.
arXiv:2607. 22766v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) is increasingly bottlenecked by data quality.
arXiv:2512. 22240v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models are primarily judged by predictive performance, especially in applied genomics, where explanations are read as biological findings.
arXiv:2601. 09071v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The existence of multiple, equally accurate models for a given predictive task leads to predictive multiplicity, where a Rashomon set of models achieve similar accuracy but diverge in their individual predictions.
arXiv:2608. 14509v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Systems that ask a language model to reach a conclusion from many sources usually concatenate them into one prompt.
arXiv:2608. 02412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have become the default tool for a remarkable range of tasks, yet they have had conspicuously little success at one of the most common machine learning workloads: predictive analytics over tabular data.
arXiv:2608. 14649v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present dLLM-SetScore, a training-free method that uses discrete masked-diffusion language models for multi-label text classification.
The paper introduces the concept of observational multiplicity, where multiple probabilistic classifiers can perform similarly yet produce conflicting predictions, undermining interpretability and safety. It proposes measuring this arbitrariness through a regret metric that captures how predictions could shift with different training labels. The authors present a general method to estimate regret, show it varies across dataset groups, and discuss its use for safety via abstention and targeted data collection.
Interpretable AI with Local Distillation proposes a method where a black‑box teacher model guides a regularized linear student model at each query point. The teacher defines locality by upweighting training observations with similar predicted outcomes and anchors the fit with its own prediction at the query point, treated as a pseudo‑observation. By adding Gaussian randomization and refitting, the approach identifies reliable features and stable subgroups, achieving near‑teacher accuracy while producing sparse, locally interpretable linear models.