The paper examines whether model uncertainty aligns with human disagreement on vision tasks. Using multi‑annotator datasets (FER+ and CIFAR‑10H), the authors find that pretrained models rarely reflect the ambiguity humans perceive, with weak correlations between model confidence and human disagreement. Predictive multiplicity offers only modest improvement, indicating that common uncertainty metrics fail to flag ambiguous cases.
arXiv:2602.06652v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: The robustness of Vision Language Models (VLMs) is commonly assessed through output-level invariance, implicitly assuming that stable predictions r...
By Farooq Ahmad Wani, Alessandro Suglia, Rohit Saxena, Aryo Pradipta Gema, Wai-Chung Kwan, Fazl Barez, Maria Sofia Bucarelli, Fabrizio Silvestri, Pasquale Minervini
The paper introduces a new consistency criterion for auditing decision systems that combines ensemble margin with local prediction variability to address predictive multiplicity, or the Rashomon effect. It shows that finite ensembles converge to the expected model’s consistency score as ensemble size and sample count grow, and demonstrates that ensembling models from the Rashomon set reduces unchecked incorrect predictions while keeping diversions moderate. Experiments on transformer and fine‑tuned language models for NLP and tabular classification confirm the method’s effectiveness and stronger alignment with existing multiplicity metrics.
By Sinjini Banerjee, Tim Marrinan, Anand D. Sarwate
arXiv:2507. 06722v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding how large language models (LLMs) internally represent and process their predictions is central to detecting uncertainty and preventing hallucinations.
By Sunwoo Kim, Haneul Yoo, Alice Oh
The paper evaluates five vision‑language models on autonomous driving tasks under various visual input conditions, finding that visual corruption affects accuracy and confidence differently across models and datasets. It then tests Visual Evidence Augmentation (VEA) as an inference‑time technique to enhance reliability, observing mixed improvements depending on the model and setting.
By Manasa Mariam Mammen, Priyanka Mary Mammen, Zafer Kayatas, Stefan Wagner
arXiv:2606. 30498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Human decision-making interprets the world through high-level concepts, such as recognizing a bird by its belly color.
By Laines Schmalwasser, Jan Blunk, Niklas Penzel, Julia Niebling, Joachim Denzler
arXiv:2606. 32012v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty estimation has been a long-standing challenge in AI models; it amounts to "knowing what you don't know," and metacognition is notoriously difficult even for humans (cf.
By Sanghyuk Chun, William Yang, Amaya Dharmasiri, Olga Russakovsky
arXiv:2603. 06828v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We uncover a behavioral law of long-horizon vision-language models: models that maintain temporally grounded beliefs generalize better.
By Md Ashikur Rahman, Md Arifur Rahman, Niamul Hassan Samin, Abdullah Ibne Hanif Arean, Juena Ahmed Noshin
arXiv:2606. 17389v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal Foundation Models are increasingly used as reasoning agents, making reliability, knowing when a model may hallucinate, critical.
By Logan Mann, Yi Xia, Ajit Saravanan, Ishan Dave, Saadullah Ismail, Shikhar Shiromani, Emily Huang, Ruizhe Li, Kevin Zhu
arXiv:2511. 19636v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In many machine learning problems, there may exist multiple models that achieve nearly identical predictive performance while relying on fundamentally different internal logic.
By Shihan Feng, Cheng Zhang, Michael Xi, Ethan Hsu, Lesia Semenova, Chudi Zhong
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in vision-language understanding and natural-language response generation. However, these systems can still produce overconfident predictions and hallucination-like outputs, particularly when the visual evidence is weak, ambiguous, or semantically inconsistent.
The paper introduces a method for efficiently exploring the Rashomon set of Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) by using a parallel parameter‑efficient adaptation module, checkpointing, and a concept diversity objective. This approach generates multiple equally accurate CBMs from a single training process, achieving greater diversity than baseline methods while consuming less memory. The resulting diverse models enable trustworthy selection, reduce inter‑class confusion, and support reliable abstention in decision‑making.
By Shihan Feng, Cheng Zhang, Michael Xi, Ethan Hsu, Lesia Semenova, Chudi Zhong