arXiv Machine Learning

Attributing Cohen's d: Training Data Attribution for Disease-Related Effects in Normative Age Biomarkers

arXiv AI
Sep 3

The Ceiling Is in the Channel: Auditing Learner Gaps and Measurement Frontiers in Clinical Prediction

The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.

By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Machine-Learning Assessment of the Predictive Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers for Cognitive Impairment in an Older Hispanic Adult Cohort

The study evaluates whether inflammatory biomarkers can predict cognitive impairment in older Hispanic adults using interpretable machine learning on a small clinical dataset. A leakage‑safe Bernoulli/Categorical Naive Bayes model was trained on 165 participants from the Panama Aging Research Initiative, with continuous predictors discretized via supervised chi‑square and income treated categorically. The biomarker I‑309 (CCL1) emerged as the sole reliable incremental predictor, boosting ROC‑AUC from 0.630 to 0.740 and achieving statistically significant performance across repeated cross‑validation and random partitions.

By Antony Garcia, Gabrielle Britton, Alcibiades Villarreal, Diana Oviedo, Giselle Rangel, Xinming Huang
arXiv AI
Aug 20

FairGlucose: A CGM Fairness Benchmark Reveals Subgroup Disparities Hidden in Population-Level Validation

FairGlucose is a 300‑patient CGM cohort balanced across 12 demographic strata, providing 132,480 forecasting samples and 3,945 behavioral events. Benchmarking 33 models on 2‑hour glucose forecasting revealed that population‑level validation masks significant subgroup disparities, with error ratios ranging from 0.8 to 1.4 and T1D patients experiencing 6 mg/dL higher error than T2D. The study shows that these gaps persist across all models, align with clinically hard cases, and vary with input‑length sensitivity, underscoring the need for subgroup‑disaggregated reporting in digital health AI.

By Junjie Luo, Xuzhe Zhi, Rui Han, Abhimanyu Kumbara, Anand K. Iyer, Mansur E. Shomali, Ritu Agarwal, Guodong Gordon Gao
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 14

Imputation-free transformer learning enables robust Alzheimer's disease prediction and calibrated uncertainty quantification across heterogeneous clinical cohorts

arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.

By Christelle Schneuwly Diaz, Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh Vu, Duy-Cat Can, Gilles Allali, Philippe Ryvlin, Oliver Y. Ch\'en
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

CardioMeta: Calibrated Multi-Task Prediction of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease Across Population and EHR Data

arXiv:2607. 15721v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants.

By S M Asif Hossain, Ruksat Khan Shayoni, M. F. Mridha, Jungpil Shin
arXiv AI
Sep 1

Federated Learning for MRI-based BrainAGE: a multicenter study on post-stroke functional outcome prediction

arXiv:2506.15626v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: $\textbf{Objective:}$ Brain-predicted age difference (BrainAGE) is a neuroimaging biomarker reflecting brain health. However, training robust...

By Vincent Roca, Marc Tommasi, Paul Andrey, Aur\'elien Bellet, Markus D. Schirmer, Hilde Henon, Laurent Puy, Julien Ramon, Gr\'egory Kuchcinski, Martin Bretzner, Renaud Lopes
arXiv AI
Aug 10

International Transfer of Stochastic Cortical Self-Reconstruction

arXiv:2608. 07092v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic cortical self-reconstruction (SCSR) enables personalized mapping of gray matter atrophy, a hallmark of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), onto high-resolution cortical surfaces.

By Fabian Bongratz, Zhizheng Zhuo, Chao Zhang, Yaou Liu, Dennis M. Hedderich, Christian Wachinger
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 16

Explainable Graph-theoretical Machine Learning with Application to Alzheimer's Disease Prediction

The paper introduces Explainable Graph-theoretical Machine Learning (XGML) to build individual metabolic brain graphs from FDG-PET data and identify subgraphs predictive of multivariate Alzheimer’s disease outcomes. Using ADNI data, the best model—kernel density estimation with Hellinger distance and random forest—achieved a Pearson correlation of 0.595 across eight cognitive scores, with the highest performance on ADAS13, ADAS11, and ADASQ4. Key edges were found to be jointly but differentially predictive, indicating potential network biomarkers for cognitive decline, though external validation on OASIS3 showed weaker performance likely due to cohort differences.

By Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh V\~u, Duy-Cat Can, Christelle Schneuwly Diaz, Julien Bodlet, Guillaume Blanc, Georgi Hrusanov, Bernard Ries, Oliver Y. Ch\'en