arXiv:2606. 10279v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Supervised fine-tuning with synthetic rationale data is widely assumed to improve language model performance on clinical prediction tasks by teaching models not just what to predict but why.
Supervised fine-tuning with synthetic rationale data is widely assumed to improve language model performance on clinical prediction tasks by teaching models not just what to predict but why. We test this assumption on five-year Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) prediction from longitudinal health histories.
The paper introduces a unified pre‑training framework for medical representations that incorporates hierarchical sub‑token aggregation, partial masking, and cross‑reference mechanisms to better capture the structure of medical codes. The resulting model outperforms existing BERT‑based approaches on pre‑training tasks and downstream clinical predictions, such as dementia onset and hospitalization. An in‑silico drug repositioning study for Alzheimer’s disease demonstrates the framework’s ability to rediscover known drugs and prioritize new hypotheses without external literature, establishing a workflow for hypothesis generation and prioritization based on observational data.
arXiv:2601.03018v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on clinical text understanding, they struggle with longitudinal prediction t...
arXiv:2606.09030v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuou...
arXiv:2609.09684v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical question-answering datasets often contain answer labels, whereas high-quality rationales remain scarce, noisy, or costly to validate. This chan...
The paper introduces EDB-Bio, a benchmark of 96,000 episodes drawn from real biological studies—drug‑perturbation transcriptomics, CRISPR screens, and GWAS—to test whether language models can weigh empirical evidence and predict hypothesis truth. Initial results show that both open‑weight and frontier models are systematically underconfident, matching a trivial base‑rate forecaster in Brier score, but post‑training with proper scoring rules improves calibration and discrimination. In a downstream experiment‑selection task, a calibrated model (Ibis0) outperforms the best frontier model by 2.5×, and Bayes‑factor analysis reveals how models update beliefs, align with expert relevance judgments, and expose biases.
arXiv:2610.41710v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical trial failures are a major barrier to efficient drug development, incurring substantial costs and delaying patient access to effective therapi...
arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.
arXiv:2607. 12687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs can perform language-based quantitative prediction from unstructured inputs, but remain susceptible to hallucinations and overconfident errors, making it critical to know not only what a model predicts, but when its predictions can be trusted.
arXiv:2606. 09030v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Clinical early warning systems built on electronic health records, in which clinical observations are recorded as irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS), must deliver both calibrated risk scores for patient triage and interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify.
arXiv:2603. 14158v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are entering clinical workflows, yet evaluations rarely assess how clinician reasoning shapes model behavior during clinical interactions.