arXiv Machine Learning

CardioMeta: Calibrated Multi-Task Prediction of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease Across Population and EHR Data

arXiv:2607. 15721v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants.

arXiv AI
Aug 11

FoMoH: A clinically meaningful foundation model evaluation for structured electronic health records

arXiv:2505. 16941v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Foundation models (FMs) promise to address core limitations of traditional supervised machine learning: (i) reliance on large amounts of labeled data, (ii) task specificity, and (iii) poor transportability.

By Vincent Jeanselme, Zilin Jing, Aparajita Kashyap, Chao Pang, Florent Pollet, Young Sang Choi, Xinzhuo Jiang, Yuta Kobayashi, Yanwei Li, Sara Matijevic, Karthik Natarajan, Shalmali Joshi
arXiv AI
Sep 3

The Ceiling Is in the Channel: Auditing Learner Gaps and Measurement Frontiers in Clinical Prediction

The paper introduces a framework that distinguishes two causes of saturation in clinical prediction: a learner gap, where the model fails to use available information, and a measurement‑channel ceiling, where the recorded variables limit performance. It provides theoretical characterizations, finite‑sample diagnostics, and empirical audits across three large cohorts, showing that well‑tuned models approach the frontier while deficient learners leave large gaps. A PRISMA‑guided synthesis across 104 tasks reveals consistent channel‑level patterns, suggesting that improving the learner or the measurement channel can audit and potentially lift performance.

By Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Nusrat Jahan, Snehasis Mukhopadhyay, Shiaofen Fang, Vijay R. Ramakrishnan
arXiv AI
4d ago

Calibration-First Cross-Cohort Multimodal Temporal Learning for Transferable Asthma-Risk Forecasting

The paper introduces CALIBRA, a calibration-first multimodal temporal learning framework designed for transferable asthma‑risk forecasting across varying patient cohorts and sensor ecosystems. It processes multiple data streams—environmental, pulmonary, symptom, medication, wearable, and context—using dedicated recurrent encoders, a reliability‑conditioned gate, and gradient‑reversal training to mitigate cohort bias. CALIBRA employs a shrinkage‑based hierarchical logistic layer for probability calibration and split conformal prediction for abstention‑capable prediction sets, achieving competitive performance on a semi‑synthetic three‑cohort benchmark with controlled distribution shift.

By Taimoor Ahmad
arXiv AI
Aug 7

Trajectory-guided discharge stratification for heart failure using short-context electronic health record sequence modeling

arXiv:2511. 16839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Purpose: Heart failure (HF) discharge planning depends on identifying patients at risk of deterioration or death, yet accurate prediction from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) remains challenging.

By Falk Dippel, Yinan Yu, Annika Rosengren, Martin Lindgren, Christina E. Lundberg, Erik Aerts, Martin Adiels, Helen Sj\"oland
arXiv AI
Jul 23

SynPre-FL: Synthetic data-driven pretraining integrated Federated Learning training framework

arXiv:2607. 19524v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) offers a promising approach to privacy-preserving clinical risk prediction, but its deployment remains limited by restricted data sharing, client heterogeneity, class imbalance, and the lack of realistic tabular electronic health record (EHR) benchmarks.

By Akarsh K Nair, Muhammad Arifur Rahman, Nicholas Shopland, Andy Burton, Jun He, Yuan Shen, David Baldwin, Emma O'Dowd, Amna Burzic, Mufti Mahmud, David J. Brown
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 25

Scaling Electronic Health Record Foundation Models for Population Health Management

The paper introduces Scaling Electronic Health Record Foundation Models for Population Health Management, a large‑scale model trained on billions of medical events from over 5 million patients in Taiwan and the United States. By aligning ICD codes across different health systems, the model achieves strong scaling and generalization across 11 chronic disease prediction tasks, outperforming tree‑based, general, and biomedical language models with high sensitivity at 99% specificity. It also demonstrates superior few‑shot performance on the EHRShot benchmark and shows that cross‑system alignment provides a stronger pretraining signal than single‑site duplication in data‑limited scenarios.

By Liwen Sun, Hao-Ren Yao, Ophir Frieder, Xiang Qian, Chenyan Xiong
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 14

Imputation-free transformer learning enables robust Alzheimer's disease prediction and calibrated uncertainty quantification across heterogeneous clinical cohorts

arXiv:2607. 11656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate diagnostic classification and disease-severity prediction for Alzheimer's disease are hampered by the incompleteness and heterogeneity of real-world clinical data.

By Christelle Schneuwly Diaz, Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh Vu, Duy-Cat Can, Gilles Allali, Philippe Ryvlin, Oliver Y. Ch\'en