arXiv Machine Learning

Timing-Aware Repurchase Prediction for Web-Scale E-Commerce: Survival Models for Multi-Surface Grocery Recommendation

The paper proposes replacing multiple horizon‑specific binary classifiers with a single survival model to predict time‑to‑repurchase in grocery e‑commerce. Empirical analysis shows a slightly decreasing hazard (k≈0.9) and that a Log‑Normal model best fits marginal distributions while Weibull best fits residuals. A single Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model matches or surpasses per‑horizon classifiers with fewer trees, and a 4‑parameter calibration maps survival CDFs to horizon probabilities without monotonicity violations, revealing a trade‑off between calibration and ranking within the AFT family.

arXiv AI
3d ago

Beyond Ranking Accuracy: Evaluating LLM-Cited Feature Rationales for Next Basket Repurchase Recommendation

arXiv:2608.30333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Next-basket repurchase recommendation is commonly formulated as a ranking task: given a customer's purchase history, the system ranks previously purc...

By Yanan Cao, Anay Dombe, Murali Mohana Krishna Dandu, Shreeranjani Srirangamsridharan, Sinduja Subramaniam, Yogananth Mahalingam, Evren Korpeoglu, Kannan Achan
arXiv AI
Jul 9

Large Behavior Model: A Promptable Digital Twin of the Retail Customer

arXiv:2607. 06993v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Customer behavior modeling underpins recommendation, marketing, and decision support, yet existing approaches either optimize predictive accuracy without explaining decisions or simulate users without grounding them in real behavioral data.

By Wachiravit Modecrua, Krittin Pachtrachai, Touchapon Kraisingkorn
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunications: A Framework for CRM Integration

The paper presents a framework for integrating explainable AI into customer churn prediction for telecommunications. It benchmarks four classifiers—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—on the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset, finding comparable performance with Logistic Regression achieving the highest AUC-ROC and LightGBM the highest accuracy. Explanations are provided via SHAP and LIME at both global and instance levels, and a four‑layer CRM integration architecture is proposed to translate risk scores and attribution vectors into actionable retention strategies, projecting a 3.3–5.3 percentage point reduction in churn and $199K–$319K savings per campaign cycle.

By Sandeep Gaddamwar