arXiv Machine Learning

Timing-Aware Repurchase Prediction for Web-Scale E-Commerce: Survival Models for Multi-Surface Grocery Recommendation

The paper proposes replacing multiple horizon‑specific binary classifiers with a single survival model to predict time‑to‑repurchase in grocery e‑commerce. Empirical analysis shows a slightly decreasing hazard (k≈0.9) and that a Log‑Normal model best fits marginal distributions while Weibull best fits residuals. A single Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model matches or surpasses per‑horizon classifiers with fewer trees, and a 4‑parameter calibration maps survival CDFs to horizon probabilities without monotonicity violations, revealing a trade‑off between calibration and ranking within the AFT family.

arXiv AI
Sep 1

Beyond Ranking Accuracy: Evaluating LLM-Cited Feature Rationales for Next Basket Repurchase Recommendation

arXiv:2608.30333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Next-basket repurchase recommendation is commonly formulated as a ranking task: given a customer's purchase history, the system ranks previously purc...

By Yanan Cao, Anay Dombe, Murali Mohana Krishna Dandu, Shreeranjani Srirangamsridharan, Sinduja Subramaniam, Yogananth Mahalingam, Evren Korpeoglu, Kannan Achan
arXiv AI
Jul 9

Large Behavior Model: A Promptable Digital Twin of the Retail Customer

arXiv:2607. 06993v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Customer behavior modeling underpins recommendation, marketing, and decision support, yet existing approaches either optimize predictive accuracy without explaining decisions or simulate users without grounding them in real behavioral data.

By Wachiravit Modecrua, Krittin Pachtrachai, Touchapon Kraisingkorn
arXiv AI
6d ago

StoBasket: Joint Upsell and Cross-Sell Optimization for Contribution Margin

StoBasket is a joint stochastic basket‑editing framework that simultaneously optimizes upsell and cross‑sell offers for a retail basket. It selects replacement and addition offers, evaluates them by expected incremental contribution margin, and couples the responses through displayed‑offer, accepted‑offer, and joint‑acceptance channels—an approach that, according to simulations on five public basket datasets, captures almost all attainable margin (within 0.5–0.7%). The method demonstrates that correct economic accounting and joint selection can unlock significant margin that traditional popularity‑weighted or next‑basket recommenders leave unrealized, and it provides an exact optimizer that solves real baskets in milliseconds.

By Xin Heng
arXiv AI
Aug 28

Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunications: A Framework for CRM Integration

The paper presents a framework for integrating explainable AI into customer churn prediction for telecommunications. It benchmarks four classifiers—Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—on the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset, finding comparable performance with Logistic Regression achieving the highest AUC-ROC and LightGBM the highest accuracy. Explanations are provided via SHAP and LIME at both global and instance levels, and a four‑layer CRM integration architecture is proposed to translate risk scores and attribution vectors into actionable retention strategies, projecting a 3.3–5.3 percentage point reduction in churn and $199K–$319K savings per campaign cycle.

By Sandeep Gaddamwar
arXiv AI
4d ago

MOSS: A Production Framework for Monitoring and Diagnosing Semantic Failures in Search and Recommendation Systems

MOSS (Model Sanity Service) is a production framework that embeds LLM-based relevance scoring into a continuous monitoring loop for recommendation, search, and offer surfaces, using targeted sampling, strategy-aware prompting, and structured alerting to diagnose semantic failures. It has been deployed for over six months at a large U.S. retailer, identifying two confirmed serving defects and quantifying a 76.4% reduction in alert rate for a backfill blending fix. Benchmark results show that LLM judges outperform non-LLM baselines on both recommendation and search tasks, demonstrating that a single LLM monitoring framework can deliver actionable quality signals across multiple product discovery surfaces.

By Alina Nesen, Prathyusha Kanmanth Reddy, David Relyea, Rohit Avinash Mujumdar, Samaneh Karimi, Bo Shen, Jordan Hashemi