arXiv Machine Learning

The C-index illusion: discrimination without calibration in published survival models

arXiv:2607. 19526v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: "Stop Chasing the C-index when Evaluating Survival Analysis Models" (ICML 2026, Spotlight) argued normatively, on synthetic data, that evaluating survival models by discrimination alone, i.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 22

When Are Scoring Rules Proper? Bridging Theory and Practice in Survival Model Evaluation

arXiv:2212. 05260v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Proper scoring rules encourage probabilistic predictions that match the true underlying distribution and are central to model evaluation, with increasing relevance in automated workflows such as AutoML.

By John Zobolas, Raphael Sonabend, Riccardo De Bin, Johannes Piller, Philipp Kopper, Lukas Burk, Andreas Bender
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 3

Incorporating data drift to perform survival analysis on credit risk

arXiv:2601. 20533v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk.

By Jianwei Peng (Humboldt-Universit\"at zu Berlin), Stefan Lessmann (Humboldt-Universit\"at zu Berlin, Bucharest University of Economic Studies)