arXiv Machine Learning

Learning an Interpretable Risk Scoring System for Maximizing Decision Net Benefit

arXiv:2604. 04241v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Risk scoring systems are widely used in high-stakes domains to assist decision-making.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 9

A Distributionally Robust Optimisation Approach to Fair Credit Scoring

arXiv:2402. 01811v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Credit scoring has been catalogued by the European Commission and the Executive Office of the US President as a high-risk classification task, in light of the potential harms of making loan approval decisions based on models that would be biased against certain groups.

By Pablo Casas, Huan Yu, Christophe Mues
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 16

Foundation Models for Credit Risk Prediction: A Game Changer?

arXiv:2605. 18147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses.

By Bart Baesens, Andreas Goethals, Stefan Lessmann, Simon De Vos, Cristi\'an Bravo, David Martens, Victor Medina-Olivares, Christophe Mues, Maria Oskarsd\'ottir, Seppe vanden Broucke, Tony Van Gestel, Tim Verdonck, Wouter Verbeke
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 30

Cost-Sensitive Conformal Prediction and Human-in-the-Loop Abstention for Imbalanced High-Stakes Decision Support: A Multi-Domain Benchmark

arXiv:2607. 27143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-stakes decision systems in credit scoring, fraud detection, healthcare, and industrial safety require reliable uncertainty quantification under severe class imbalance and asymmetric error costs.

By Manpreet Singh, Akshatha Srikantha, Shyamal Lakhanpal
arXiv AI
Jun 8

Bounded-Abstention Pairwise Learning to Rank

arXiv:2505. 23437v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Ranking systems influence decision-making in high-stakes domains like health, education, and employment, where they can have substantial economic and social impacts.

By Antonio Ferrara, Andrea Pugnana, Francesco Bonchi, Salvatore Ruggieri
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

Learning Risk Scores Robust to Unobserved Confounders

The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.

By Ryan Edmonds, Yingxiao Ye, Sina Aghaei, Andr\'es G\'omez, \c{C}a\u{g}{\i}l Ko\c{c}yi\u{g}it, Phebe Vayanos