The paper introduces a method for learning risk scores that remain reliable even when historical data contain unobserved confounders. By treating propensity weights as uncertain and applying sensitivity analysis with Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization, the authors formulate a robust learning problem solvable via an exponential cone program. Experiments on semi‑synthetic UCI data show the approach improves calibration by up to 29.2% over traditional benchmarks and 11.1% over the state of the art, without harming other performance metrics.
arXiv:2209. 01754v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed.
The paper introduces PUID, a Personalized Unobserved-Confounding-aware Interaction Deconfounder, designed to mitigate hidden confounding in recommender systems without relying on costly randomized controlled trials. PUID estimates user-item level sensitivity bounds using an entropy-based method that gauges the strength of hidden confounding from the mutual information between observed features and exposure status. An adversarial optimization strategy and a benchmark-guided variant (BPUID) further enhance robustness and predictive accuracy, and experiments on three real-world datasets show consistent outperformance over state-of-the-art baselines.
arXiv:2511. 22823v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Weakly supervised learning has emerged as a practical alternative to fully supervised learning when complete and accurate labels are costly or infeasible to acquire.
Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network (CHAUN) and Robust Adversarial Inverse Propensity Score (RA-IPS) method to address these limitations.
arXiv:2606. 27114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uplift modeling, crucial for estimating individual treatment effects (ITE), faces dual challenges: flexibly leveraging inter-group similarity to enhance discriminative power and debiasing under unobserved confounding scenarios.
arXiv:2606. 19117v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline policy learning has received growing attention in causal inference.
arXiv:2607. 05806v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training data for machine learning is routinely collected by a selection process the model never sees: loans are observed only when granted, outcomes only when a test was ordered.
arXiv:2606. 07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models for counterfactual outcomes have great potential to support decision-making under complex interventions, but existing approaches are limited by unstable estimation, poor generalization across environments, and bias from nuisance model misspecification.
arXiv:2608. 09768v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken.
The paper investigates the consistency of surrogate loss methods for classification and policy learning when the set of admissible classifiers is constrained, such as by interpretability or fairness requirements. It shows that hinge loss is the only surrogate that preserves consistency when constraints limit only the prediction set, but consistency can fail if constraints also restrict the functional form. The authors derive conditions guaranteeing consistency for hinge-risk-minimizing classifiers and use these results to design efficient hinge-loss-based procedures for monotone classification problems.
arXiv:2603. 15158v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Addressing the domain adaptation problem becomes more challenging when distribution shifts across domains stem from latent confounders that affect both covariates and outcomes.
arXiv:2607. 04081v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a central capability of pretrained language models, yet its theoretical analysis has focused primarily on causal language models trained by left-to-right autoregressive prediction, such as GPT-style models.