arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.
arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.
The paper introduces the Descriptive‑Complexity Information Criterion (DCIC), a new framework for selecting models when predictors are highly correlated and the model class is uncertain. DCIC uses Kraft‑admissible code lengths to regularize large collections of candidate models, achieving selection consistency under sub‑Weibull noise without requiring RIP‑type conditions and providing non‑asymptotic oracle risk bounds even when the model is misspecified. The approach also unifies heterogeneous model classes on a common complexity scale, enables class–model recovery under identifiability conditions, and offers a complexity‑guided search path that balances computational effort with statistical accuracy, as demonstrated by numerical experiments.
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
arXiv:2402. 07407v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose conformal predictive programming (CPP), a framework to solve chance constrained optimization problems, i.
arXiv:2606. 20557v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A model is multicalibrated on a collection of group weights $G$ if it is calibrated -- i.
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.
arXiv:2608. 04474v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data-driven decision pipelines combining predictive machine learning models with downstream optimization software are increasingly used to make high-stakes operational decisions.
arXiv:2608. 08662v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The single-selection prophet inequality is a canonical Bayesian online selection problem in which independent nonnegative values arrive sequentially and the decision-maker must irrevocably select at most one.