arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
arXiv:2606. 31915v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While conformal prediction provides a general framework for uncertainty quantification in predictive inference, its application is often limited by computational cost.
arXiv:2609.36472v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sequential Model-Based Optimization (SMBO) traditionally relies on Bayesian or ensembling surrogates for uncertainty quantification. While historically...
arXiv:2609. 27976v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictive scores with conformal calibration, but under continuous label shift both the score and calibration weight depend on the unknown response-marginal density ratio.
arXiv:2606. 11865v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient.
arXiv:2606. 29054v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) deployed for structured generation (NER, JSON extraction, QA, and classification) lack formal reliability guarantees, and standard heuristic abstention policies miss user-specified risk targets by 7.
arXiv:2602. 01733v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees.
Conformal prediction replaces single-class predictions with prediction sets that guarantee a pre-specified coverage probability. The paper reviews properties of non‑conformity score functions, presents examples from the literature, and proposes new modifications. It introduces a method to evaluate prediction set sizes and compares different score functions, including their effectiveness for class‑conditional conformal prediction with imbalanced classes.
Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms.
arXiv:2607. 26577v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) of Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s and its variants are the standard approach to online conformal prediction under distribution shift, but they suffer from three fundamental limitations.
arXiv:2511.15146v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Yet ranking scores is straightforwa...
arXiv:2605. 14953v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$.
arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.