arXiv Machine Learning By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.

Summary generated by The Flow from the publisher's feed. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Isotonic Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2607. 16675v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A point prediction that is well calibrated on average can still be systematically biased conditional on its own value, undermining its use in downstream decision-making.

By Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk, Archer Y. Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 3

Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values

arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.

By Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben Taieb