arXiv Machine Learning August 7, 2026 By Anton Conrad, Rustam Isaev, Denis Belomestny, Eric Moulines, Sergey Samsonov

Beyond Marginal Validity: Finite-Sample Guarantees for Localized Conformal Prediction

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arXiv:2608. 06206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal prediction endows arbitrary black-box predictors with finite-sample, distribution-free marginal coverage, yet marginal validity can hide severe covariate-specific miscalibration, while exact distribution-free conditional coverage is finite-sample unattainable.

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