The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.
arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.
arXiv:2511. 23276v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Effective HFMD surveillance requires forecasts capturing both time-series patterns and contextual drivers such as school calendars, weather, and policy or surveillance reports.
arXiv:2605. 26704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points.
arXiv:2608. 16273v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foresight-England (Foresight-E) is the first national-scale generative foundation model of electronic health records (EHRs), developed as a research pilot strictly for COVID-19 research.
NOAH is a generative transformer that models the entire multimodal patient journey by integrating bidirectional time and a variational latent space to capture continuous, stochastic clinical trajectories. Trained on over 559 million events from 431,000 hospital visits, it processes medical images, time‑series, numeric signals, categorical events, and both structured and unstructured records. The model supports autoregressive forecasting, zero‑shot classification, and counterfactual simulations, yielding strong predictive performance across 15 ICD chapters, 29 comorbidities, and time‑to‑event outcomes.
arXiv:2607. 10466v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Survival models can model time-to-event outcomes using partially observed data.
INTERVenE introduces Transformer models that use a knowledge‑based temporal abstraction (KBTA) token stream of named clinical concepts instead of raw measurements, enabling per‑token attributions to resolve directly to clinical concepts. Two variants are offered: an auto‑regressive decoder that generates future abstraction trajectories with step‑wise risk readouts, and a bidirectional encoder that jointly predicts risk and time‑to‑event in a single pass. On 57,078 MIMIC‑IV admissions, the encoder variant outperforms neural baselines with a support‑weighted AUPRC of 0.672 and AUROC of 0.901, while the decoder provides complementary token‑level risk trajectories.
arXiv:2607. 26752v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Medical world models aim to learn a latent state of patient or organ physiology and a transition function that forecasts how that state evolves under interventions, supporting downstream tasks from imaging-based diagnosis to digital-twin treatment planning.
Mr.Dec is a new Transformer‑decoder model that predicts 30‑day hospital readmission by treating each admission as a chronological sequence of daily multimodal events, integrating Electronic Health Record updates and Chest X‑ray findings. It uses disease‑specific supervised contrastive learning to shape a diagnosis‑aware latent space and preserves day‑level clinical signals that other methods often compress. Experiments on MIMIC‑IV and MIMIC‑CXR datasets show state‑of‑the‑art performance and the model can highlight "Critical Days" for actionable real‑time risk stratification.
The paper introduces CALIBRA, a calibration-first multimodal temporal learning framework designed for transferable asthma‑risk forecasting across varying patient cohorts and sensor ecosystems. It processes multiple data streams—environmental, pulmonary, symptom, medication, wearable, and context—using dedicated recurrent encoders, a reliability‑conditioned gate, and gradient‑reversal training to mitigate cohort bias. CALIBRA employs a shrinkage‑based hierarchical logistic layer for probability calibration and split conformal prediction for abstention‑capable prediction sets, achieving competitive performance on a semi‑synthetic three‑cohort benchmark with controlled distribution shift.
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
arXiv:2609.36144v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic health records provide irregular observations of latent patient states that evolve continuously over time. Recent autoregressive models cond...